« on: November 18, 2013, 06:14:26 PM »
I can find a number of project management forums online; but there's just nowhere that seems active and, to put it simply, helpful. Compare Homebrew Talk and AHA, Badger And Blade and Straight Razor Forums, Gamefaqs, BikeForums, and so on with ... PMzilla or the Project Management Forums. All of these places are active... except the PM forums, which have a handful of users and posts days out of date in the one or two forums that haven't been dead for weeks or months.
I'm trying to find some information on risk management. A lot of RM stuff seems to be technical and mechanical--identify risks, rate them by probability versus severity, develop mitigation and contingency, estimate cost and risk tolerance, develop a risk management plan, risk breakdown structures, and so on. There isn't really a lot of "how to estimate risk", though; and I happen to be very good at this. So good that so far nobody can point me at anything that's ... enlightening.
I'm up to a point where I've been writing my own risk analysis theories, based on experience in things I've had to analyze. For example, some places tell you that risk can be estimated in terms of probability versus severity: Probability often starts as "Never, Unlikely, Likely, Definitely" and becomes "Infrequent, uncommon, common, frequent" and eventually just time spans like "Every 3 years" "Every 1 year" "Every 6 months" "Weekly" "Daily" "Multiple times per day". Severity similarly goes from abstracts like "Negligible, Moderate, Severe, Catastrophic" to "Dollars, Thousands, Hundreds of Thousands, Millions, Billions". That's not a progression so much as the refinement: low-probability events WILL happen "eventually", and a situation is not severe unless it carries a cost (money in business).
My experience has lead me to more complex concepts such as lease terms: when you have the choice to invest so much up front to reduce the cost of a certain ongoing operation, you're facing a lease. It costs $500/mo to keep a Large Amazon EC2 server running, or $150/mo with an up-front pay-up of $3600 for 3 years. This means $250/mo, and means you're saving $250/mo. Okay, so the risk diminishes over the lease: You're risking $3600 if you no longer have a need for this up-front; but every 1 month diminishes the risk by $250--10 months in, if you have to ditch this and move up, you're only behind by some $1100 (and had you gone big up-front, the difference in cost over 10 months would make this only a little cheaper... or more expensive). Plotting this diminishing over time, versus probability, versus risk tolerance, you can do complex risk assessment ... with calculus and basic algebra.
It gets complex. I can't find an appropriate forum or any books that go into the really crazy s*** I've gotten balls-deep into, and I can't imagine I'm factually better at understanding risk than every other person on this planet. Somebody's written books about this.