first person who shows me on paper how to make a living on a 1-2 bbl system get's a free beer. Once you run the numbers it becomes pretty clear. I can understand someone starting at 1-2 bbl (though, having gone through that I wouldn't recommend it necessarily) - can't ever understand staying at that level. The one exception I have been overlooking is a pub or tasting room. I'm considering production facility only.
One of the problems with a small production run is that you either distribute shallow or deep. Do you distribute all your five gallon kegs to 15 bars where they will blow almost instantly, or do you sell to five bars so the kegs will last a bit longer. How often will you have to brew to keep up with demand? If you only plan to brew once a week, how many times do you have to brew to satisfy your customers. If more people want to buy your stuff, how much are you willing to sacrifice you time to brew several times a week? If you can't satisfy my demand for your beer week in and week out, I'll find someone who can.
Ranger Creek, I'm talking to you about OPA.