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Messages - passlaku

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16
The Pub / Re: Trying to understand state excise taxes on beer.
« on: January 19, 2013, 06:47:45 PM »
Not really.  Not to get into the methods stuff but the r-square isn't as important as the actual coefficients presented in the model.  The r-square is just a descriptive statistic that describes the model's goodness of fit. To increase its size all one has to do is to include a bunch of variables.  Check out "How not to lie with statistics" by Gary "The Political Science Methods God" King: http://gking.harvard.edu/files/abs/nolie-abs.shtml

But I agree, it'd be nice to have a larger R2.  What other variables would you include?

17
The Pub / Re: Trying to understand state excise taxes on beer.
« on: January 19, 2013, 03:02:09 PM »
The model explained about 17% (r-square) of the variation.  It is a small r-square.

18
The Pub / Re: Trying to understand state excise taxes on beer.
« on: January 19, 2013, 02:42:50 PM »
Quote

Well, I'm not going to run the regressions, but it sounds like you have, so you tell us.

This might help: http://alcoholjustice.org/campaigns/charge-for-harm/450-neglected-and-outdated-state-beer-taxes.html

Maybe legislators in some states are just lazy?

I was just running the numbers yesterday and according to my analysis the only variable that had a significant coefficient was %populationBlack.  According to the regression model, as %Black increases so does tax on beer (about .40 cents for every percentage point).

I told you it was a can of worms. This finding is, however, consistent with some of the prohibition literature I have read (check out Okrent's Last Call).  This also seems analogous with some of the the political science (my day job) research in other policy areas.  I suppose if I include other variables like median income the relationship between race and beer tax might disappear.

19
The Pub / Re: Trying to understand state excise taxes on beer.
« on: January 19, 2013, 01:58:50 PM »
Alright.  So if you exempt those 5 states, what explains the rest?

20
The Pub / Re: Trying to understand state excise taxes on beer.
« on: January 19, 2013, 01:47:38 PM »
Big breweries might matter but #of breweries doesn't.  Maybe I should get a figure for the number of brewery employees for each state.  The more people are employed by breweries then the lower the taxes on beer, right?

21
The Pub / Trying to understand state excise taxes on beer.
« on: January 19, 2013, 01:39:58 PM »
I saw this posted the other day:
http://taxfoundation.org/blog/monday-map-state-beer-excise-tax-rates-0

A slight correction of the numbers are here (from the Beer Institute):
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/325601-excisetaxrate.html

I was wondering what you guys thought might make these tax rates vary by state? Let me tell you that I punched these numbers into SPSS (stats software), used OLS regression, and found that %Christian, %liberal, perCapita car fatalities, property tax rate, and #breweries per state all had no effect.  It was all state level data.  I am leaving out of this explanation the one and only variable that had a coeeficient that was significant (it is positive and a can of worms).  I am thinking of writing this up, but am interested in including more "controls" or explanations that help us understand state excise tax policy.  What do you think the model is missing?  I should probably include medianIncome and maybe percapita # of breweries in the state.

22
General Homebrew Discussion / Re: What's Brewing This Weekend - 11/23 Edition
« on: November 22, 2012, 11:02:04 AM »
Brewing 10 gallons of an all Cs APA (Columbus, Cascade, Centennial, and Amarillo).

23
General Homebrew Discussion / Re: What's Brewing This Weekend - 11/2 Edition
« on: November 04, 2012, 07:56:01 PM »
Brewed my first take on an all 2-row beer (21#s) for 12 gallons and an OG of 1.048.  I plan on using WLP 500, Abby Ale, in one fermentor and WLP 036, Dusseldorf Alt, in the other.

24
General Homebrew Discussion / Re: What's Brewing This Weekend - 9/28 Edition
« on: October 20, 2012, 08:43:33 PM »
Brewed this on Friday:

bullybrew.tumblr.com

25
All Grain Brewing / your experiences in moving to 10g?
« on: September 17, 2012, 07:34:51 PM »
I am going to move to 10g batches and was hoping to learn from others who have done so already.  I will have to drill the pot I bought off Amazon (60 qt stainless) and then fix some sort of pick up tube.  But other than that I just don't know if there is big alterations to recipes, cooling, etc.

So what are your experiences in moving to 10g?  What part of the process seemed more of a pain?  What would you do different?

26
General Homebrew Discussion / Re: Youtube Videos
« on: September 09, 2012, 11:41:03 AM »

I really like this guy's website: donosborn.com.  He keeps good notes about his brewing process and has even made some videos.  Enjoy.

27
General Homebrew Discussion / Re: Black IPA recipe formulation question/problems
« on: September 06, 2012, 06:44:31 PM »
All great advice but I wonder if that is enough midnight wheat in a batch that size?  You might end up with an IBA instead.  The midnight wheat is a really nice malt it adds the lightest roast flavor with no astringency.

28
General Homebrew Discussion / Re: White House Brew Recipe
« on: September 01, 2012, 04:09:09 PM »
I look forward to adapting this recipe for the ingredients I have on hand.  Although, I may have to order the honey malt to accentuate the actual honey in the beer.

I wonder what type of honey the Whitehouse has.  Is it Tupelo, Orange Blossom, or Sam's Best?    I am also wondering if I buy honey at the store do they label it as fluid ounces or by weight?  Does anyone know what 16 oz of fluid honey weighs?

By the way, "Ale to the Chief" is just darn cleaver regardless of partisan leanings.

29
General Homebrew Discussion / Re: Buffalo Wild Wings and home brew
« on: August 31, 2012, 07:49:41 PM »
I thought it was kinda funny.  As a wise man one said, "It's funny 'cause it's true!"

Was that wise man Homer Simpson?

30
General Homebrew Discussion / Re: White House Brew Recipe
« on: August 30, 2012, 07:40:35 PM »
The Feds already did their job by making it legal for the states to allow it.  Whether homebrewing is allowed in your state is considered a "states" issue and the Federal government does not have any jurisdiction on it.

Yeah, if your state has restrictive liquor laws, that's all on your state. The Feds can't make states allow homebrewing. The Feds have some power in the commerce clause to regulate businesses, for instance to prevent discrimination within a legal business operation (no "whites-only" restaurants.) Since homebrewing isn't commercial, I don't think it falls under commerce clause.

At one point in time, the commerce clause was interpreted pretty broadly.  In the case you mention above concerning the whites-only restuarant (Katzenbach v. McClung), the Supreme Court basically said that if Congress can reasonably conclude that, taken in the aggregate, an activity will have a substantial effect on interstate commerce, then it is within Congress' power under the commerce clause to regulate that activity.

It's a stretch, but Congress could conceivably regulate homebrewing under that interpretation.  However, the SC has limited the power of Congress under the commerce clause quite a bit since that case was decided.

I don't think that logic regarding the Commerce Clause works since the 21st Amendment gives state govts broad discretion in terms of how they will regulate alcohol.  But it does raise a constitutional question about which part  of the Constitution is more important.

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