Are you certain that your weights and volumes are accurate. If so...then I'd lean to the crush assuming your water chemistry is on the mark.
The other consideration is your temperature measurements. Calibration?
My weights and volumes could be out a bit but I weigh everything going in and out so I don't think they are off much. I'm not sure about my water, I have Martin's page but I just don't quite get it. I'm adjusting pH with citric acid because that's about all I can find around here and I have a new and just calibrated pH meter so I think that's ok. I was using plain tap water for darker beers up until now but I've been doing some lighter beers and using 50/50 distilled and tap because my hardness is high. But, it was higher when it was all tap water. My hydrometer reads pretty close to 1.000 in 60 degree water (not distilled) so I think it's pretty good. I wonder if my roller could have slipped open or something through use???