I thought extract was trending down.
Not from what I can tell. I have about six brewers in the neighborhood; most of them are extract brewing about 75-90% of the time and only a couple of us are AG predominately (I do maybe 2 batches of extract per year, just to boil something communally with the group at another guy's house and to make it easier to do that).
At the LHBS, it is heavily extract and kit extract at that; but the newbies sample some fine all grain styles and generally migrate to all grain with time, if they stay with the hobby.
What I am seeing is more and more guys who were away from brewing for many years (kids and family obligations typically cited as the reasons for being away) and stepping back into it; a lot of them with small batch brewing.