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Messages - hopfenundmalz

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2791
The Pub / Re: Epic Rant about 10 Barrel & AB/InBev
« on: December 18, 2014, 08:21:11 AM »
Don't worry, the bubble's gonna pop soon anyway.  All the greedy people who got into brewing to make loads of money will realize their folly and leave the industry, leaving only our passionate, insane, poor saviors. ;)

This is more true than many think. It will take a while, but someday the surge in growth will have reached a point where the market will adjust.

The guys from Founder said a few years back that they were going to grow to be established when things got lean in the future.

the bubble is only going to break soon if you assume that themarket can only support 1 brewery per 100,000 drinkers or similar. Pre-prohibition the breweries:drinkers ratio was much higher than it is today. Even today, in many european countries that ratio is much much higher than today in the USA.

a random sampling of related media: http://www.brewersassociation.org/insights/how-many-breweries-can-us-take/

if we take the mid point between what that article poses as a reasonable level for the USA (~7100 breweries) and what a ratio in line with Switzerland (~15000 breweries) there is still quite a bit of room to grow from our current ~3100 breweries.

And we can see how the market share of the Big Ones is falling. They are huge so it doesn't seem like much at this point but it will likely continue.

There will always be adjustments in the market, saturated markets will adjust, out and out bad breweries will start to fail more often as the market matures but we are still a ways any sort of bursting bubble.

Switzerland does not have 15000 breweries, that was an extrapolation to what the US would have for the same number of breweries per capita. Gemany has about 1300 breweries, about 85 million people, so on a per capita basis that comes to about 5200 for the US on the same per capita basis compared to Germany.

Comparing to Switzerland or Germany is a numbers game, as those breweries are well established for the most part, make good quality beer (for the most part). Many family breweries are closing due to cost pressures, or that the kids of the brewer do not want to spend the long hours for low returns and would rather have a high paid office job. Edit, not so long ago Germany had about 1600 breweries when I lived there, 15 years back.

I did say the expansion is going to continue for a while. There are too many opening around here making dodgy beer for the first year or longer. With so many in the planning stages the US will be at the 5200 or even the 7100 number in a few years or more. Then what? There was a shake out in the late 90s due to too many poor quality beers, fly by night fast buck guys, and poorly funded breweries. It is not a case of if but when.

never meant to imply that Switzerland had 15000 breweries. I was referring to the breweries:drinkers ratio and what that would mean in the US. My point, and I just picked an article off the top of a good search to support it, was that just because the old model only allowed for 3 big breweries and a handful of regional players we're not really sure what the new model allows for. And it has a lot to do with the intention of the entrepreneur who is starting out the brewery. a relatively small permanent population combined with a healthy transient tourist population can support a great number of breweries, apparently given that Vermont can support 6.2 breweries:100,000 potential drinkers. extrapolated out to the national population somewhere in the high 10000 range.

that being said, My response was more directed at narvins comment RE: soon. What I see happening is a rolling pattern. As nanos expand into micros and micros expand into mega-craft new room opens up at the nano level. there is obviously attrition along the way and some portion of the brewers will never want to expand. growth will slow to keep pace with population growth.

Sometimes I read too literally.

An area with tourists (ski towns, towns at the entrance to a National Park) and college towns are naturals for small breweries. States such as Vermont and Oregon have the tourism and the local populations that take to craft beer.

There is room for more growth for sure. Michigan has the 5th highest amount of breweries in the US, but the share of craft in Michigan is below the national average. There are still many who think they are going upscale when they order Labatts, lots of Labatts here.

Remembering the late 90s, there were patterns that happen that lead to the slowdown. Breweries making poor quality beer, quick buck artists getting into the game, people doing it because it was "cool". We are in a boom time, but booms are followed by busts. I don't see a collapse, but there will be a slow down or adjustment someday. Many of the Craft brewing veterans have said as much.

2792
The Pub / Re: Epic Rant about 10 Barrel & AB/InBev
« on: December 17, 2014, 09:59:01 PM »
Don't worry, the bubble's gonna pop soon anyway.  All the greedy people who got into brewing to make loads of money will realize their folly and leave the industry, leaving only our passionate, insane, poor saviors. ;)

This is more true than many think. It will take a while, but someday the surge in growth will have reached a point where the market will adjust.

The guys from Founder said a few years back that they were going to grow to be established when things got lean in the future.

the bubble is only going to break soon if you assume that themarket can only support 1 brewery per 100,000 drinkers or similar. Pre-prohibition the breweries:drinkers ratio was much higher than it is today. Even today, in many european countries that ratio is much much higher than today in the USA.

a random sampling of related media: http://www.brewersassociation.org/insights/how-many-breweries-can-us-take/

if we take the mid point between what that article poses as a reasonable level for the USA (~7100 breweries) and what a ratio in line with Switzerland (~15000 breweries) there is still quite a bit of room to grow from our current ~3100 breweries.

And we can see how the market share of the Big Ones is falling. They are huge so it doesn't seem like much at this point but it will likely continue.

There will always be adjustments in the market, saturated markets will adjust, out and out bad breweries will start to fail more often as the market matures but we are still a ways any sort of bursting bubble.

Switzerland does not have 15000 breweries, that was an extrapolation to what the US would have for the same number of breweries per capita. Gemany has about 1300 breweries, about 85 million people, so on a per capita basis that comes to about 5200 for the US on the same per capita basis compared to Germany.

Comparing to Switzerland or Germany is a numbers game, as those breweries are well established for the most part, make good quality beer (for the most part). Many family breweries are closing due to cost pressures, or that the kids of the brewer do not want to spend the long hours for low returns and would rather have a high paid office job. Edit, not so long ago Germany had about 1600 breweries when I lived there, 15 years back.

I did say the expansion is going to continue for a while. There are too many opening around here making dodgy beer for the first year or longer. With so many in the planning stages the US will be at the 5200 or even the 7100 number in a few years or more. Then what? There was a shake out in the late 90s due to too many poor quality beers, fly by night fast buck guys, and poorly funded breweries. It is not a case of if but when.

2793
The Pub / Re: Epic Rant about 10 Barrel & AB/InBev
« on: December 17, 2014, 02:25:14 PM »
Don't worry, the bubble's gonna pop soon anyway.  All the greedy people who got into brewing to make loads of money will realize their folly and leave the industry, leaving only our passionate, insane, poor saviors. ;)

This is more true than many think. It will take a while, but someday the surge in growth will have reached a point where the market will adjust.

The guys from Founder said a few years back that they were going to grow to be established when things got lean in the future.

2794
The Pub / Founders Sells Minority Stake
« on: December 17, 2014, 07:24:45 AM »
They just announced a 30% stake goes to Mahou San Miguel.

Discuss, compare and contrast to 10 Barrel.

http://foundersbrewing.com/latest-news/

2795
The Pub / Re: Epic Rant about 10 Barrel & AB/InBev
« on: December 17, 2014, 06:56:24 AM »
The non-compete would keep one from brewing. When Goose Island was sold, the son Greg Hall could no longer be a brewer. He started Virtue Cider in Fennville MI. So if one has been making cider and mead as part of the hobby, one could go into those beverages.


2796
Homebrew Competitions / Re: NHC 15
« on: December 16, 2014, 06:42:11 PM »
I have been watching the calendar..... But had not seen an update.  I am assuming there will be one there, as earlier in the thread, Janis had stated:

"I have 2 more competitions to register; Austin, TX and Saint Louis, MO.  I don't have dates or shipping/judging info for either right now."

If Janis says so, there you go.

Amanda K might have an idea.


2797
Kegging and Bottling / Re: Corking
« on: December 16, 2014, 06:41:20 PM »
Well thanks guys. Those are all thoughts I had. My flip tops were labeled as belgian flip tops and are really thick and heavy. I think what I will end up doing is buying about 6 cases of 750 belgian bottles when I order my floor corker. Then I will just have to try it out on these flippers.

Just buy 6 cases of Cantillon, drink, and refill.

You can thank me for that idea later!



2798
The Pub / Re: Epic Rant about 10 Barrel & AB/InBev
« on: December 16, 2014, 06:39:41 PM »
People with passion do not have money and people with money do not have passion.

Just buy my beer and be happy :)

I love that, Leos. Mrs. R and I must make a big swing through Wisconsin someday.

2799
General Homebrew Discussion / Re: Psst. Denny sent me
« on: December 16, 2014, 03:53:15 PM »
Welcome! If Denny sent you, alright.

2800
Homebrew Competitions / Re: NHC 15
« on: December 16, 2014, 03:52:01 PM »
It seems one or 2 locations have not registered with the BJCP yet. No St. Louis so far, you sure they have one this year (I really don't know)? If they do keep looking at the BJCP site.

http://www.bjcp.org/apps/comp_schedule/competition_schedule.php


2801
Kegging and Bottling / Re: Corking
« on: December 16, 2014, 10:10:17 AM »
The tops are different, so does a cage work on a swing top? The swing top neck has holes for the bale mechanism, and those are stress risers and the top might not withstand high pressure.

2802
General Homebrew Discussion / Re: Why do commercial brew kettles have lids?
« on: December 15, 2014, 02:45:05 PM »
More surface area give a higher boil off rate so that has to be controlled., the commercial breweries stacks get rid of the volatiles, some systems have a trough that collects condensate high in DMS and such off of the bottom of the 'hat' and that has a drain as Sean says.

2803
General Homebrew Discussion / Re: What's Brewing this Weekend? 01/18/2014
« on: December 15, 2014, 01:53:19 PM »
5 gallons of CAP on Friday, 11 gallons of a Zum Uerige Altbier clone today. About to pitch the yeast.

2804
The Pub / Re: Top places to retire
« on: December 15, 2014, 12:38:53 PM »
I've been here 10 and I really like the area. The beer scene has grown exponentially.

I think I'm going to make a stop there on my way across the country in february. Keith, are you still going to be in your current place or will the new facility be up and running by then?

We will still be in current location. Let me know when and I'll be sure to be available to give you a beer sampling!

I'd like to be invited to that gathering. Don't want to intrude but I'd like to tip a glass with you guys.

I'd settle for you just popping in some weekend regardless of visitors. Support your local brewery. ;)

Got some great beers on tap right now. You should try the doppelstickealt before it is all gone. And the wine bbl aged Frankenhammer.  But of course you are invited if Jonathan shows up as well. (Let me know if you don't feel sufficiently guilty.) ;D

You had me at Sticke Alt.  I'm in!!

I've been supporting the Big Deck BBQ and Brew (aka by basement fridge) lately but you're right it's been far too long. Cold weather and/or early sunset drives me home.
OK, I can't help but ask: What are the temperatures in Alabama that are driving you home? ???

I had to scrape frost off my windshield this morning.

I think out low was 40F. No frost!

2805
General Homebrew Discussion / Re: buttery flavor not diacetyl?
« on: December 15, 2014, 12:37:13 PM »
Diacetyl can be confused with some crystal malt/caramel flavors. but I don't expect you used crystal malts in a light lager.

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