I suspect a significant part of the error is batch size. for instance, did he account for the volume of LME or add 4 gallons of water to it? was the finishing volume exactly 4 gallons? Or is that what is in the fermenter and more was left in the pot? I think his expectation of 1.045 is clearly off, but without knowing the exact numbers I can't tell if his measurement of 1.030 is off.

also, the difference between 60F and 68F should account for about .001 on his hydrometer.

cheers--

--Michael