[bo]

Also, once this brewing bubble busts again, which it pretty much has too, there will be so many used fermenters on the market people will be giving them away.

And lots of cheap hops.

"Pro Brewer" paying $48 a pound for hops???  What do you charge for a pint, $20? 

Lol. No, this was a one time expense of whole hops for a Randall event. I pay between 5 and 10 per lb though, depending on variety.

Glad to hear that.

Buying hops by the ounce at a LHBS, is like buying your weekly groceries at the quickie mart.

[jmcamerlengo]

Yeh I wont be ready for my system until mid 2014.

Dunno if its appropriate to post but I did get my quote from Premiere Stainless and Stout tanks. Sticker shock on the Premiere stainless system to say the least. 139k for a full 7 bbl system with training and setup. Stout was a good bit cheaper. Hopefully Sharpsville container is cheaper yet, plus the advantages of much cheaper shipping costs if any and if something goes wrong they are right up the street.

Maybe by the time Im ready I will be able to get a used one real cheap, or atleast get fermenters much cheaper.

[denny]

Citra, Simcoe, Amarillo - not so much.

Crystal, also.  John said that if they weren't growing their own Crystal, there would be no Brutal this year.

[denny]

Hops don't seem cheaper at all to me. I just order some whole hops for my randal last week - $2.99 an oz. seems like I used to get them for $1.29 back before the first shortage.

And Denny is right, the hop market was tight last year and I expect it to become even tighter in the next couple years. I opened a brewery in Oct. of 2010 and had no problems getting simcoe, Amarillo or simcoe. Last year I was lucky to get centennial.

Also, once this brewing bubble busts again, which it pretty much has too, there will be so many used fermenters on the market people will be giving them away.

I've heard that the Centennials will be in short supply this year, too.

[bluesman]

Hops don't seem cheaper at all to me. I just order some whole hops for my randal last week - $2.99 an oz. seems like I used to get them for $1.29 back before the first shortage.

And Denny is right, the hop market was tight last year and I expect it to become even tighter in the next couple years. I opened a brewery in Oct. of 2010 and had no problems getting simcoe, Amarillo or simcoe. Last year I was lucky to get centennial.

Also, once this brewing bubble busts again, which it pretty much has too, there will be so many used fermenters on the market people will be giving them away.

I've heard that the Centennials will be in short supply this year, too.

Why is that Denny?  Did the excessive rain and snow this past winter have anything to do with that?

edit: got it...I just read your previous post about the increasing demand.

[bo]

If you publicize high hop prices, they will come.

[kylekohlmorgen]

Citra, Simcoe, Amarillo - not so much.

Crystal, also.  John said that if they weren't growing their own Crystal, there would be no Brutal this year.

So look for all-Crystal/Willamette IPAs as a trend this fall?

Mmmmmmm.... 

[majorvices]

No, crystal is one of the hard ones to come by. Another one I was lucky to get contract for.

[richardt]

Might be a good idea for pro brewers to "invest" in a small co-op or acreage that grows hops in an ideal location (for those non-proprietary varieties)--it may take a few years to reach maturity, but it would provide insurance against hop shortages.  Perhaps having a friend with an acreage agree to having you pay for planting your rhizomes there...

[denny]

Might be a good idea for pro brewers to "invest" in a small co-op or acreage that grows hops in an ideal location (for those non-proprietary varieties)--it may take a few years to reach maturity, but it would provide insurance against hop shortages.  Perhaps having a friend with an acreage agree to having you pay for planting your rhizomes there...

I forget just how many acres and varieties of hops Rogue is growing now, but it's a lot.  They grow a lot of their own barley, too.  They started several years back as a hedge against short supply and high price.

[denny]

If you publicize high hop prices, they will come.

You may have your cause and effect reversed.

[bo]

If you publicize high hop prices, they will come.

You may have your cause and effect reversed.

Maybe, but from what I've seen with other commodities, I don't think so. How many times have you heard the media report that gas prices will slowly climb over the next few months, only to have them jump significantly the next day?

Some varieties are in short supply, but that will be corrected and in a few years they'll be the cheap ones. Economics 101, supply and demand.

[denny]

I still think you have reversed cause and effect, but like you say, we'll see.

[richardt]

There's a relatively small number of hop growers and they're clustered in certain prime growing areas.  They tend to have co-ops or unions (hmm... price control, possibly) catering to the craft brewing market and homebrewers.
Hops can spontaneously combust, viz. S.S. Steiner 40,000 sf warehouse fire in 2009.
http://www.cbsnews.com/2100-500395_162-2060017.html

It isn't just simple supply/demand.  Relatively speaking, the number of hop growers and retailers are small relative to the number of craft brewers and home brewers.  It is hard to say what effect that will have on prices.  Any decrease in sales right after harvest (due to excessively high prices) would be exacerbated by cost of storage and reduced prices later in the year (to try and move the product out of storage and free up warehouse space for next year's crop). 

[denny]

Based on what I'm hearing, there may not be much to store!  Many varieties have been contracted out so there's no availability for them at all.  And short supplies of many other varieties will drive prices up.