[jmcamerlengo]

Lamb Burger with greek tzatziki sauce on a kaiser roll with fresh rosemary fries.

I'd buy that - sounds great! Now I'm hungry

Thanks! Im hoping a lot of people feel that way.

[morticaixavier]

Don't forget spicey. spicey sells beer!

Customer1: Mmm, these rosemary and chilli fries go really well with this tzatziki burger!
Customer2: Yeah! spicey though!
Customer1: the IPA really cools the spice.
Customer2: right you are! Waiter!
Waiter: Can I help you?
Customer2: can we get another couple pitchers of the IPA?

[jmcamerlengo]

Mort, I am an ancho and chipolte freak! haha. And yes you are absolutely right about the spice

[morticaixavier]

every once in a while, when we are in NYC my wife takes me to the belgian bar she used to hang at in college. The Vole et nuit (Shrew of the night?) they do belgian style frittes and mussles and make their own dipping sauces. some of which are quite spicey. it's amazing how quickly you can get on top of a 9 percent tripple when eating chipotle ketchup and horseradish aoli

[jmcamerlengo]

every once in a while, when we are in NYC my wife takes me to the belgian bar she used to hang at in college. The Vole et nuit (Shrew of the night?) they do belgian style frittes and mussles and make their own dipping sauces. some of which are quite spicey. it's amazing how quickly you can get on top of a 9 percent tripple when eating chipotle ketchup and horseradish aoli

Ideas are swirling....

[richardt]

Plan for success. 

Space is going to be one of your biggest issues, IMO.
Just 6K sf?  You'll very likely need much more room than that in less than a year.
And that's just for brewing/tap room purposes.  You're also planning a restaurant and kitchen. 
Make sure you have room to build out or grow into more adjacent space.

Be sure to check out the "going pro" audio and presentations from NHC coming out within the next few weeks (AHA member only access) that address this issue as one of the biggest mistakes new brewers make.

[jmcamerlengo]

Plan for success. 

Space is going to be one of your biggest issues, IMO.
Just 6K sf?  You'll very likely need much more room than that in less than a year.
And that's just for brewing/tap room purposes.  You're also planning a restaurant and kitchen. 
Make sure you have room to build out or grow into more adjacent space.

Be sure to check out the "going pro" audio and presentations from NHC coming out within the next few weeks (AHA member only access) that address this issue as one of the biggest mistakes new brewers make.

Thats great to hear! I will check those out.

[nateo]

Don't go too crazy with space. It's better to have a small restaurant that's always packed than a large restaurant that's always empty.

[Wheat_Brewer]

So some quick math, this is much more of a question to you.

1BBL=248 pints (pre spillage)

7BBL=1736 pints

1736 x $5.00 (assumed cost per pint and that's a large assumption on my part)/pint = $8680 grossed

How fast do you think you can sell a 7BBL batch, and how often do you think you need to brew?

[mpietropaoli]

Don't forget spicey. spicey sells beer!

Customer1: Mmm, these rosemary and chilli fries go really well with this tzatziki burger!
Customer2: Yeah! spicey though!
Customer1: the IPA really cools the spice.
Customer2: right you are! Waiter!
Waiter: Can I help you?
Customer2: can we get another couple pitchers of the IPA?

 I thought hop bitterness escalated/intensified spice?

[nateo]

1736 x $5.00 (assumed cost per pint and that's a large assumption on my part)/pint = $8680 grossed

How fast do you think you can sell a 7BBL batch, and how often do you think you need to brew?

I've seen about 10% quoted for losses due to transferring, spillage, etc. So something more reasonable would be like 1562 pints @ $5 = 7810, @$4 = 6248. You'd probably be spending about 5-10% of that on ingredients, depending on how strong of a beer you're making.

A $1m brewery flat-line depreciated over 20 years is still about $50k per year, assuming no salvage value. I'm not really sure how you'd account for the salvage value on brewing equipment and buildings. I'm not really sure how long those tanks and equipment last, either. So if the life on your equipment is less than that, you'll have a much larger expense.

So making about $5k a batch seems like a lot, until you start thinking about how much capital it takes to get to that point, and we haven't even touched on labor yet.

[Jimmy K]

I thought hop bitterness escalated/intensified spice?

I agree with you, but I know others who don't. To me, an IPA after eating chili peppers is like applying sand paper to my tongue.  I've been wondering if there is a difference in the way taste buds react among different people.

[skyler]

I eat very spicy food quite regularly and have a high tolerance for capsaicin, but for me hops have little to do with it. I find higher-alcohol beers to be the best for helping my tongue manage capsaicin. If that beer is hoppy, fine, but a tripel wil help as well as a big IPA for me.

[nateo]

I would need a lot more info about the recipes and real estate/rent/equipment prices to get an accurate cost estimate, but I would break the numbers down like this:

Revenue (units sold x $price)
less variable costs
= contribution margin
less fixed costs
= operating income

Most of your costs are going to be a mix of variable and fixed costs. Like utilities, if there's a flat connection fee (fixed) plus KwH used (variable), or wages if you need to give your cook enough hours that he won't find another job (fixed) plus overtime if you get busy (variable).

I would use linear programming to formulate the recipes and product mix. My gut tells me you'd end up losing money having 8 different beers on tap, but that's why you run the numbers to be sure. My gut also tells me you'd lose money making any amount of lager.

Once you have your contribution margin, it's easy to figure out your break-even point.

Break-even = [fixed expenses / Contribution margin ratio] (Contribution margin ratio is contribution margin / revenue)

[tschmidlin]

I would use linear programming to formulate the recipes and product mix. My gut tells me you'd end up losing money having 8 different beers on tap, but that's why you run the numbers to be sure. My gut also tells me you'd lose money making any amount of lager.

I don't see your logic here.  Having more beer on tap is likely to increase sales, not keep them flat.  People will try different things and come back more often if there is more variety.  If it is licensed for it, you can also have guest taps to make up the difference if you can't keep your product on.

There are a lot of variables that go into it obviously, but I would not advise anyone to open a pub with fewer than 8 taps.  I would probably suggest 16 or 20, with about half guest taps from other local-ish beers and possibly something like Rolling Rock or Yeungling depending on the expected demographic.  You want people to try your beer, but you have to get them in the door first.

You can cut down on the number of fermenters to save $$, but make sure the building and equipment can handle more so you can expand easily.  Unless you can get a good deal on used ones of course.  Make sure the glycol can handle it, the hoses are long enough, the walk in is big enough, etc.

Obviously there will be differences between markets, so look around at the local places and see what they have on tap and how many taps.  Around here it's weird if a place has BMC on tap, but in other places that's all you can find.  You've got to know the demo.  If most places don't serve craft beer they you'll need to spend a lot of time educating your customers and it will probably be best to have some familiar beers on tap for them.