Author Topic: Looming bacon shortage  (Read 2299 times)

Offline Joe Sr.

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Looming bacon shortage
« on: September 24, 2012, 01:21:44 PM »
Stock up.  The end is nigh.  This is the worst news I've seen all day.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/breaking/la-fi-mo-pork-bacon-shortage-20120924,0,6240960.story
It's all in the reflexes. - Jack Burton

Offline Slowbrew

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Re: Looming bacon shortage
« Reply #1 on: September 24, 2012, 02:32:01 PM »
I know you are joking, at least a little, but pork isn't the only product this will affect.  Beef will be going through the roof too.

**** I decided to censure myself.  I went off on a, soon to be political tangent, and didn't want that to happen.

Paul
« Last Edit: September 24, 2012, 02:33:45 PM by Slowbrew »
Where the heck are we going?  And what's with this hand basket?

Offline hopfenundmalz

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Re: Looming bacon shortage
« Reply #2 on: September 24, 2012, 02:45:09 PM »
Right now beef prices have dropped (or they did), as the farmers are selling the herd they will not be able to feed later. A small number of cattle next year = high prices.

I plan to have a steak on the grill this week.
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Offline Joe Sr.

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Re: Looming bacon shortage
« Reply #3 on: September 24, 2012, 02:46:39 PM »
Right now beef prices have dropped (or they did), as the farmers are selling the herd they will not be able to feed later. A small number of cattle next year = high prices.

I plan to have a steak on the grill this week.

This was the report I heard awhile back.  Low beef prices now, high next year.

Time to stock up and use the food saver.  Probably not worth the investment in a chest freezer, but I could repurpose that for beer...
It's all in the reflexes. - Jack Burton

Offline nateo

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Re: Looming bacon shortage
« Reply #4 on: September 24, 2012, 02:49:05 PM »
"the main point is that commodities are a tiny share of retail prices in developed economies.  Prices of most everything, including food, is made up primarily of labor and capital costs, plus rents to producers and retailers with market power."

http://greedgreengrains.blogspot.com/2012/08/whats-price-of-corn-in-your-meat-less.html

My guess is big retailers with market power are using the drought as an excuse to squeeze consumers. Anyway, since everyone is so fat these days, it's probably better if people bought less bacon.
In der Kürze liegt die Würze.

Offline boulderbrewer

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Re: Looming bacon shortage
« Reply #5 on: September 26, 2012, 08:47:20 PM »
I would suggest to find a local source for your meat and veggies.
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Offline euge

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Re: Looming bacon shortage
« Reply #6 on: September 27, 2012, 08:18:56 AM »
Just saw the "Pork- Be inspired" commercial...

There's going to be a shortage yet they are advertising like we don;t eat enough of it already.
The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool. -Richard P. Feynman

Offline nateo

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Re: Looming bacon shortage
« Reply #7 on: September 27, 2012, 08:22:41 AM »
There's going to be a shortage yet they are advertising like we don;t eat enough of it already.

My prediction is that unit sales next year will be down, but per-unit and total profit will be up. Shortages are good for suppliers, bad for consumers.
In der Kürze liegt die Würze.

Offline euge

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Re: Looming bacon shortage
« Reply #8 on: September 27, 2012, 08:36:32 AM »
Shortage implies lack of product due to demand. But we have an engineered shortage in this case. Seems to be the trend.
The first principle is that you must not fool yourself, and you are the easiest person to fool. -Richard P. Feynman

Offline Joe Sr.

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Re: Looming bacon shortage
« Reply #9 on: September 27, 2012, 08:42:14 AM »
I'm not sure I see the "engineered" part of the shortage. 

Unless you're (correctly) suggesting that by reducing the ethanol requirement in fuel the price of grain could be lowered thereby reducing the cost of feed and reducing the number of livestock slaughtered this year thusly increasing the number available for slaughter next year and eliminating the shortage.  However, that would be engineer a solution to the shortage, not engineering the shortage itself.

Right now, the way I see it is that it seems to be a direct impact of the recent drought.

The impact of corn for ethanol on food prices and crops is something that's been an issue for years separate and apart from the current economic/environmental conditions.
It's all in the reflexes. - Jack Burton

Offline Slowbrew

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Re: Looming bacon shortage
« Reply #10 on: September 27, 2012, 09:15:31 AM »
I'm not sure I see the "engineered" part of the shortage. 

Unless you're (correctly) suggesting that by reducing the ethanol requirement in fuel the price of grain could be lowered thereby reducing the cost of feed and reducing the number of livestock slaughtered this year thusly increasing the number available for slaughter next year and eliminating the shortage.  However, that would be engineer a solution to the shortage, not engineering the shortage itself.

Right now, the way I see it is that it seems to be a direct impact of the recent drought.

The impact of corn for ethanol on food prices and crops is something that's been an issue for years separate and apart from the current economic/environmental conditions.

Ethanol was an engineered solution to low corn prices.  Not so many years ago farmers had to raise livestock using the corn they raised as feed in order to pay the costs of raising the grain.  We produce so much grain in this country that the historic markets could not support a reasonable price for it.  Ethanol opened up a new market for some of the surplus.

Now that the surplus is smaller, the drought we are going through will cause farmers who were able to expand livestock operations while selling their grain on the spot market and buying feed stocks in the futures market can't make the numbers wash anymore.  Hence, downsizing the feedlots.

The last few years have been an anomaly in farm commodities.  High grain prices, high livestock prices, dramatically higher yields and lower overall chemical expenses have driven up profits all through the supply chains.  If things go back to a more normal set of circumstances the only group that will lose income is the farmers.

Paul
Where the heck are we going?  And what's with this hand basket?