Author Topic: Trying to understand state excise taxes on beer.  (Read 2603 times)

Offline passlaku

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Re: Trying to understand state excise taxes on beer.
« Reply #15 on: January 19, 2013, 06:47:45 PM »
Not really.  Not to get into the methods stuff but the r-square isn't as important as the actual coefficients presented in the model.  The r-square is just a descriptive statistic that describes the model's goodness of fit. To increase its size all one has to do is to include a bunch of variables.  Check out "How not to lie with statistics" by Gary "The Political Science Methods God" King: http://gking.harvard.edu/files/abs/nolie-abs.shtml

But I agree, it'd be nice to have a larger R2.  What other variables would you include?

Thanks for your responses. 

Offline nateo

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Re: Trying to understand state excise taxes on beer.
« Reply #16 on: January 19, 2013, 07:14:43 PM »
I think you need to use better data, and all the data should be consistent. Many states have different excise tax rates for large vs small breweries, like WA's high and low. Sure, GA has uniform "local" excise taxes, but what about all the other places in the country? What if all of the breweries in some other state, are in one location that does have a local excise tax?

I still think 0.17 is worthless. Or let me put it this way: I would not wager any of my own money on those odds. Sure, you can add a bunch of co-linear variables to inflate your R^2, but I think it's safe to say % of black residents is not related to the excise tax rates you're using.
In der Kürze liegt die Würze.

Offline 1vertical

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Re: Trying to understand state excise taxes on beer.
« Reply #17 on: January 20, 2013, 04:34:39 PM »
See my Sig....
A fine is a tax for doing wrong. A tax is a fine for doing well.

Offline nateo

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Re: Trying to understand state excise taxes on beer.
« Reply #18 on: January 20, 2013, 05:05:31 PM »
I love my country, and have no problem paying taxes to help make it the greatest place in the world. After all, you get what you pay for in life. I really don't get why some people hate taxes.

Case in point, in rural MO there is no dog catcher, and there are dozens of packs of wild dogs that run around, eating pets and harassing livestock. Given the large number of well-armed people here, this shouldn't be a problem, but no one bothers to shoot them. In CO taxes were way higher, and it was a lot nicer to live there.
In der Kürze liegt die Würze.

Offline 1vertical

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Re: Trying to understand state excise taxes on beer.
« Reply #19 on: January 20, 2013, 07:44:37 PM »
No matter how I try I cannot reply without entering the verboden zone :'(
But there was something about the revolutionary war when colonists revolted
from England due to taxation....or something like that if my recollection of the
HISTORY that I was taught is correct.....

Mods feel free to delete if it is too far....in the realm of the "p" word
« Last Edit: January 20, 2013, 09:01:45 PM by 1vertical »
A fine is a tax for doing wrong. A tax is a fine for doing well.

Offline reverseapachemaster

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Re: Trying to understand state excise taxes on beer.
« Reply #20 on: January 20, 2013, 09:04:00 PM »
No matter how I try I cannot reply without entering the verboden zone :'(
But there was something about the revolutionary war when colonists revolted
from England due to taxation....or something like that if my recollection of the
HISTORY that I was taught is correct.....

Taxation without representation. Not really relevant here, unless you are an employed minor or felon.

Maybe the whisky rebellion would be more relevant?
Heck yeah I blog about homebrewing: Brain Sparging on Brewing but I'm also a lawyer: The Kielich Law Firm

Offline 1vertical

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Re: Trying to understand state excise taxes on beer.
« Reply #21 on: January 20, 2013, 09:10:47 PM »
No matter how I try I cannot reply without entering the verboden zone :'(
But there was something about the revolutionary war when colonists revolted
from England due to taxation....or something like that if my recollection of the
HISTORY that I was taught is correct.....

Taxation without representation. Not really relevant here, unless you are an employed minor or felon.

Maybe the whisky rebellion would be more relevant?

Perhaps I just feel the taxes I am charged are imposed without the desires i have being correctly
represented....so shame on me for feeling overcharged  especially taxes on alcohol and other sins.

Edit: Locked in 3....2....
A fine is a tax for doing wrong. A tax is a fine for doing well.

Offline reverseapachemaster

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Re: Trying to understand state excise taxes on beer.
« Reply #22 on: January 20, 2013, 09:12:28 PM »
I'm pretty sure we can all agree that the black population in each state has no effect on beer excise taxes.

Excise taxes are a function of which politicians suggest a target for the excise tax, how much they think they can get away with, how substantial lobbying efforts are against it, how badly politicians want to deter the behavior and how desperate the population is to stand up against the tax and do it anyway. I'm sure some political scientist has written a more specific formula, but that's essentially the factors you're looking at.

In some of the states, as discussed above, the big breweries have substantial positions and don't want to be taxed out of profits so they will spend the money to keep beer taxes from rising. Some states have historically low excise taxes, some have low taxes overall. Some states love their excise taxes. Some of the more conservative states enjoy a large religious presence that is anti-alcohol and believe excise taxes will minimize consumption (specifically looking at OK, MS and AL).

Overall, it's difficult to look at a snapshot of information that isn't entirely complete on the specific excise taxes and try to determine why fifty different sovereign entities made the decisions they made over decades.
Heck yeah I blog about homebrewing: Brain Sparging on Brewing but I'm also a lawyer: The Kielich Law Firm

Offline 1vertical

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Re: Trying to understand state excise taxes on beer.
« Reply #23 on: January 20, 2013, 09:18:46 PM »
Well here, it seems that when the price of liquor sales rises it is due to the
published Increases in the state imposed taxation of the citizenry.  It is
really a Sin tax because TPTB would rather that you did NOT drink and suffer
the mirad of maladies that "the comsumption" imposes upon the REST of the
NON consuming society.  And I for one do NOT like it....just sayin my .02 cents.

I'm Out

« Last Edit: January 20, 2013, 10:07:01 PM by 1vertical »
A fine is a tax for doing wrong. A tax is a fine for doing well.