There are a lot of factors which affect efficiency. 15 min fly sparge is gonna be a big part of it. Consider an hour a quick fly sparge. Going for Pliny right off the bat, very ambitious. Still it should be around 6.8%, so a solid ipa. Don't let beersmith guide you, you need to guide it. Don't forget that crush is important also. What was the temp after the mash? There are just too many variables at play. Playing with them is part of the fun.
Not a big deal, you should have a nice ipa to drink. I would make a couple beers shooting for 1.060 or so but planning 10 points either way. You really need to know your own system efficiency, before you can start targeting anything.