In cloning recipes, what is the most important thing to follow based on your own system? As an example, the recipe for Switchback Ale in the March/April issue of BYO. The brewer's specs call for OG 1.046, and est ABV of 5&. When I plug the ingredients into Beersmith(I know its only a tool, but I am trying to learn how to utilize this tool) setting eff at 72%, and following the all grain instructions, Beersmith can get me to the OG no problem for my system, but at called for mash of 154 for 60 minutes, the software yields ABV of only 4.5%. If I drop mash temp to 147, the est ABV shoots up to the called for 5%. So my question is (and I have never tasted the original brew) should I lower my mash temp to get that ABV, or should I follow the brewer's steps and mash at 154? I know its a huge jump from 154 down to 147, so I am looking essentially to make the best beer from this recipe. Grist follows:
7# 2 row
1# 1.5 oz crystal 40
11 oz crystal 20
2.5 oz Black patent
Follow up question is this: does the difference come from BYO's default setting of 65% eff compared to my estimated 72%?
Anything anyone can tell me would be great. Have wanted to make this beer since reading the issue as I think it sounds like a great jumping off point for my not so hoppy friends accustomed to BMC beers.