Hard to guess what would win people's choice. Lighter beers like CAP can be crowd pleasers, but get passed over as too average for a competition win.
I've sat on a bunch of BOS panels. Honestly, there are a lot of lighter beers that win BOS, at least up here in WA. Sure, there are plenty of RISs, IIPAs, and big Belgians, but I've also seen Pilsners, Milds, Kolschs, Dortmunders, ESBs, and Cal Commons win, too. I could easily see a really good CAP walking away with BOS.