I still submit that the only numbers thst count are how many 1st round placers and 2nd round medalers a club has. Not mere sheer numbers. If its just sheer numbers, that does not speak well of the BJCP. So yes, clearly its about numbers, but how can it matter how many losers a club has? Its simple isnt it? More brewers who placed and medaled wrote down BN. It really doesn't mean anything other than that. The BN isnt to blame, nor is the AHA. The way the COTY is set up defines it as not that big a deal. Someone ought to do something about it I suppose.
As JT pointed out, the number of entries absolutely matters.... just simple probability. It would be like saying it would not matter if one individual entrant was allowed to have 60 entries, while everyone else had 5-10. If the person with 60 entries got 4 medals and the person with 10 entries got 3....... you are essentially saying that it is only the 4 he got that matter. I am simply not a good enough/consistent enough brewer right now to win 3 medals (or 1 for that matter
) at NHC with 5 entries..... give me 60 entries though, and I am starting to like my chances.
It would be interesting to know the actual numbers of entries as they break down from club to club... That would show if there is, or is not a huge disparity on entry numbers.
I don't know what the answer is...... but, ultimately the problem is pretty simple. For a long time big clubs, in big metropolitan areas that have the ability to draw from a million+ people won the award. Along came a club that had the ability to draw from an even bigger pool of people, has more members and gets more people to participate.... so, now they win all the time. The clubs that are no longer the biggest want the rules changed so that they are the biggest clubs again.... In the end, you are simply swapping one big club with huge reach, for several big clubs with more reach than almost everyone else. The VAST majority of clubs still have zero chance of winning the award in this structure.
Some combination of like-sized clubs, and/or reward for consistency of entering quality beer seems to be the only way to make this award meaningful and truly competitive from year to year.