[klickitat jim]

I was just listening to a discussion about Lagunitas going global. One person mentioned how that kind of thing might impact small craft breweries, and I suppose all of us to some degree. My understanding is that the monsters kind of have free reign on hop contracting. I imagine that AB or Coors or Heineken could call Yakima and get what they want easier than, for example, pFreim in Hood River. I wonder how that might play out in the future. Imagine Lagunitas growing to the size of Bud and having giant breweries in 50 or 100 other countries. Multiplying the demand for hops but not the availability. Imagine if there were as many bottles of Hop Stupid as there are Bud Light. You may say that will never happen, and I agree you are probably right, but probably right not because the market will never exist. Probably right because there can only be so much hops produced.

The Lagunitas deal may not have a large impact in the next few years, but if they accomplish their goal, it has to have an impact at some point. What if 5 or 6 breweries like them all went global?

I'm curious what some of our resident craft brewers think. Are we looking at a Hopocolypes?

[hopfenundmalz]

That is why smaller breweries have hop contracts. The growers use contracted hops to justify going to the bank for a loan to put more new hops in the fields. There are ones that deal on the spot market, but volatility can be a problem there (availability and price).

The big breweries have contracts too, but some of those would be for Alpha hops that are turned into extract.

[S. cerevisiae]

Mitch Steele covered what the effects of growing craft beer sales may have on the craft beer market on his blog.  It's pretty chilling to think that the megas have the power to do whatever they want. 

http://hoptripper.com/craft-beer-sales-are-at-an-all-time-high-and-why-this-could-be-scary/

[denny]

I was just listening to a discussion about Lagunitas going global. One person mentioned how that kind of thing might impact small craft breweries, and I suppose all of us to some degree. My understanding is that the monsters kind of have free reign on hop contracting. I imagine that AB or Coors or Heineken could call Yakima and get what they want easier than, for example, pFreim in Hood River. I wonder how that might play out in the future. Imagine Lagunitas growing to the size of Bud and having giant breweries in 50 or 100 other countries. Multiplying the demand for hops but not the availability. Imagine if there were as many bottles of Hop Stupid as there are Bud Light. You may say that will never happen, and I agree you are probably right, but probably right not because the market will never exist. Probably right because there can only be so much hops produced.

The Lagunitas deal may not have a large impact in the next few years, but if they accomplish their goal, it has to have an impact at some point. What if 5 or 6 breweries like them all went global?

I'm curious what some of our resident craft brewers think. Are we looking at a Hopocolypes?

Jim, you've GOTTA go to YCH Hop and Brew School!  You're right there!

[hopfenundmalz]

I was just listening to a discussion about Lagunitas going global. One person mentioned how that kind of thing might impact small craft breweries, and I suppose all of us to some degree. My understanding is that the monsters kind of have free reign on hop contracting. I imagine that AB or Coors or Heineken could call Yakima and get what they want easier than, for example, pFreim in Hood River. I wonder how that might play out in the future. Imagine Lagunitas growing to the size of Bud and having giant breweries in 50 or 100 other countries. Multiplying the demand for hops but not the availability. Imagine if there were as many bottles of Hop Stupid as there are Bud Light. You may say that will never happen, and I agree you are probably right, but probably right not because the market will never exist. Probably right because there can only be so much hops produced.

The Lagunitas deal may not have a large impact in the next few years, but if they accomplish their goal, it has to have an impact at some point. What if 5 or 6 breweries like them all went global?

I'm curious what some of our resident craft brewers think. Are we looking at a Hopocolypes?

Jim, you've GOTTA go to YCH Hop and Brew School!  You're right there!

+1

I loved it.

[klickitat jim]

I'll try to get there next year. Sounds like a hoot

[klickitat jim]

That is why smaller breweries have hop contracts. The growers use contracted hops to justify going to the bank for a loan to put more new hops in the fields. There are ones that deal on the spot market, but volatility can be a problem there (availability and price).

The big breweries have contracts too, but some of those would be for Alpha hops that are turned into extract.

The way I hear it, contracts dont guarantee that the brewery gets its contracted hops though. A monster can make a call and end up with them, and the craft sized guys are out of luck, contract or no. Marshalls latest test may prove valuable. Maybe we should start squirreling away pellets for the future.

[HoosierBrew]

Maybe we should start squirreling away pellets for the future.

Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how it all plays out in the future. Never a bad idea to learn what varieties sub well for the most popular ones.

[klickitat jim]

Maybe we should start squirreling away pellets for the future.

Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how it all plays out in the future. Never a bad idea to learn what varieties sub well for the most popular ones.

Worse comes to worst I'll try to get a gleaning permit, or stand out on Glade Road with a sign "Will work for hops"

[HoosierBrew]

Maybe we should start squirreling away pellets for the future.

Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how it all plays out in the future. Never a bad idea to learn what varieties sub well for the most popular ones.

Worse comes to worst I'll try to get a gleaning permit, or stand out on Glade Road with a sign "Will work for hops"

No doubt.   

[brewday]

Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how it all plays out in the future. Never a bad idea to learn what varieties sub well for the most popular ones.

Yep.  If Big Beer wants to buy up all of the Amarillo to make syrupy "Pale Ales" then fine with me.  I'll just move on to other hops and call it a day.  Good excuse to try something different anyway.

[klickitat jim]

Maybe we can create a couple thousand profiles on the beer rating sites and start raving the hell out of some garlic bomb 100% chinook IIIPA... let the mega marketers chase that ghost a while

[HoosierBrew]

Yeah, it'll be interesting to see how it all plays out in the future. Never a bad idea to learn what varieties sub well for the most popular ones.

Yep.  If Big Beer wants to buy up all of the Amarillo to make syrupy "Pale Ales" then fine with me.  I'll just move on to other hops and call it a day.  Good excuse to try something different anyway.

Exactly. It's a cool thing that there's such an explosion of new late hop varieties being grown now. Worst case you could stockpile some Magnum and Columbus to bitter most beers and buy the lesser known 'castoffs', many of which are excellent, to use late.

[HoosierBrew]

Maybe we can create a couple thousand profiles on the beer rating sites and start raving the hell out of some garlic bomb 100% chinook IIIPA... let the mega marketers chase that ghost a while

  Add some Summit to the description and it wouldn't be far off. 

[hopfenundmalz]

That is why smaller breweries have hop contracts. The growers use contracted hops to justify going to the bank for a loan to put more new hops in the fields. There are ones that deal on the spot market, but volatility can be a problem there (availability and price).

The big breweries have contracts too, but some of those would be for Alpha hops that are turned into extract.

The way I hear it, contracts dont guarantee that the brewery gets its contracted hops though. A monster can make a call and end up with them, and the craft sized guys are out of luck, contract or no. Marshalls latest test may prove valuable. Maybe we should start squirreling away pellets for the future.

Really? I know there are clauses due to poor crop years so that you get prorated amounts of what you contracted. If they can sell out from under you, what kind of a contract is that?