The real problem is with lack of precision in measurement. Same as when you try to use Sean's batch sparge simulator. If you don't have exact volume measurements you can't calculate true conversion efficiency.
if you had exactly accurate measurements of grain temp, water temp, tun materials characteristics and temp, water volume (probably mass actually as volume changes with temp), grain mass, etc. they theoretical equations would be spot on every time.
all of these measurements would have to take into account heat loss while transferring strike water from HLT to MT and so on as well.
This is the problem with the hyper technical approach in homebrewing, it's great if you have millions to spend on analytical equipment like an ABInbev brewery, or even a BJ's Brewpub brewery, but as homebrewers we are introducing such huge uncertainties all along the way that the empirical approach is really the only effective approach to take.
as Denny is wont to say, science is great but real world results are what matters.
Also, 1C delta seems pretty inconsequential to me. I wouldn't start worrying till about 3C.
And, homoeccentricus, I wish I had been raised with the metric system. It makes sooo much more sense than the ridiculous bodged together system that we still limp along with here in the states.