[pete b]

All-grain brewing is so time-consuming I think it will always be a niche hobby and could also fall out of favour a bit. Also no real financial saving if you start spending lots of money on shiny equipment.

So, apparently, you don't play golf? 

Seriously, though, I don't brew to save money on craft beer. I do it purely for the enjoyment. And the beer.

Indeed.  You could say the same thing about gardening, and it's on the rise.  I think the whole "maker culture" thing will make sure that a decline is no more than a cycle.

I agree with the "maker culture" aspect. I don't even consider home brewing a distinct hobby for me. Its part of my lifestyle of making my own food and doing as much as possible with my own hands and mind. I garden, cook from scratch, keep bees, keep chickens, have a little orchard, forage for mushrooms, and brew my own beer, mead, cider etc. just because I find it all fascinating and rewarding. I bet I save zero money on any of these, although if I had to I could.

[erockrph]

All-grain brewing is so time-consuming I think it will always be a niche hobby and could also fall out of favour a bit. Also no real financial saving if you start spending lots of money on shiny equipment.

So, apparently, you don't play golf? 

Seriously, though, I don't brew to save money on craft beer. I do it purely for the enjoyment. And the beer.

Indeed.  You could say the same thing about gardening, and it's on the rise.  I think the whole "maker culture" thing will make sure that a decline is no more than a cycle.

I agree with the "maker culture" aspect. I don't even consider home brewing a distinct hobby for me. Its part of my lifestyle of making my own food and doing as much as possible with my own hands and mind. I garden, cook from scratch, keep bees, keep chickens, have a little orchard, forage for mushrooms, and brew my own beer, mead, cider etc. just because I find it all fascinating and rewarding. I bet I save zero money on any of these, although if I had to I could.

I agree as well. Yesterday I made some cheese just because I had a day to myself, but not enough time to brew. Now I have over 2 pounds of mascarpone "just because" and no clue how I'm going to use all of it while it's still fresh. Regardless, I made it from fresh, local milk with my own hands and I enjoyed every minute. Actually getting to eat it is just gravy at that point.

[charles1968]

All-grain brewing is so time-consuming I think it will always be a niche hobby and could also fall out of favour a bit. Also no real financial saving if you start spending lots of money on shiny equipment.

So, apparently, you don't play golf? 

Seriously, though, I don't brew to save money on craft beer. I do it purely for the enjoyment. And the beer.

If there isn't a saving then the people who turn to home brew in a recession to save money are likely to quit pretty quickly unless they love it. Actually I think you can save money brewing with kits, but once you factor in your own labour costs, all-grain brewing makes no sense financially. Still, it's nowhere near as uneconomical as growing vegetables, which has been v popular during the UK recession.

Don't golf but do ski and dive and they aren't cheap hobbies if you like shiny gear. But I like keep brewing equipment minimal - I just don't have the space for it in a small London house. You can go a long way with just a stockpot and a converted coolbox.

[tommymorris]

All hobbies cost money. Hunting puts meat on the table but the guns, ammo, and other gear costs way more than homebrew gear. Golf costs a fortune.

On homebrew stores: I just moved to a town that has one. I am already getting tired of having to change my recipe every time I go in to get ingredients for a batch. The hops and yeast selection is always dicey. The LHBS is part of a craft (artisanal?) beer store. They are planning to open a stand alone LHBS location in March. They are promising much more inventory. I can't wait.

[ynotbrusum]

I'm lucky to be near a good LHBS - very knowledgable folks (award winning homebrewers, one Seibel grad, and a few young guys who are pushing the envelope and keeping up with the trends).  They know me well enough now to order an extra sack of floor malted Weyermann's when they get one for somebody else - and they set it aside for my dibs before selling it to anybody else.

My wife looks at my brewing as a hobby that keeps me around the house and timing things well with an all grain brew day allows me to get a lot done and brew beer as I go.

No downturn that I see in my group of friends, but I don't measure their output closely, either.

[klickitat jim]

I think there was mention of the US just now beating our own record for total breweries, which previously was held pre prohibition. Why are we thinking thats a lot when in 1920 we had a third of the population? Could that be an indicator of market capacity? Perhaps somewhere around 12,000 breweries?

[waltsmalt]

When so many of these new "breweries" are essentially bars that serve their own beer, I think there are room for so many more.  Now if we distinguished between pure production and tap room/limited distribution, I think you might see a tipping point on the pure distribution.  Of course, quality stills matter and will determine who lives and who dies.  I'm way off topic.

Fortunate to live in MPLS with two great homebrewing stores who are now owned by the the same people. 

Another great first world problem...

[a10t2]

Could that be an indicator of market capacity? Perhaps somewhere around 12,000 breweries?

I think that's exactly where we're headed. It may well turn out that, say, 1/2 of drinkers really do prefer yellow fizzy water, but I think the time is coming when many, if not most, of them get it from a local brewery.

[klickitat jim]

I guess the previous record was well before prohibition,  like 1870. So population was only about 40 million. Meaning the hypothetical limit now would be 24,000 breweries.  We only have 1 in our county of 20,000 people, so we have room for 1 more brewery once the country reaches saturation at 24,000.

[ibru]

Sounds like an opportunity, Jimbo....