[Hooper]

I will home brew until they pry the mash paddle from my cold dead hands....

[Hooper]

Joe Sr.  You are like the Omega Man to me...Always right and a light in the darkness....

[pete b]

I just hope enough people quit homebrewing for me to pick up a lightly used zymatic for $500.

[hopfenundmalz]

Wait a few years.  I'm part of that tail end of baby-boomers, born in 1958-1960. When I retire in a few more years, I'll have a lot more time for brewing and, if I'm lucky, still have a enough years and money to do it. I know I can't be the only one. As an anecdotal side note, our club has seen a real uptick in the number of younger (under 35) members just this year. Less grey hair at meetings than there used to be, which we like!

I can brew as much as I like, I have the time, money is not a problem. We do seem to be more socially active, so more nights out of the house. Lots of travel keeps me away from the taps of Homebrew. Factor in a little less drinking capacity as I age... you get the picture.

Still like to have beers for competitions.

[tommymorris]

I just hope enough people quit homebrewing for me to pick up a lightly used zymatic for $500.

Me, too!

[HoosierBrew]

I will home brew until they pry the mash paddle from my cold dead hands....

^^^ I think that's my new mantra. AHA oughta sell t-shirts and bumper stickers. 

[Philbrew]

The article has input from Gary Glass, so they did some research. As Denny said, this has been a topic, covered at length in the GC meeting.

The AHA growth has slowed, but was still slightly positive or flat last I heard.

The revenue at retailers is down. Less high margin extracts are sold as BIAB becomes more popular. Less fancy equipment sold for the same reason. Less beer is brewed due to demands on time (work, family, and so on). Every town having a brewery (it seems that way) cuts into the need to brew fresh beer.

There are many new devices coming out, the pico brew and grain father systems, that automate brewing. Those may bring more people into the hobby, as the automation has an allure for some.

Things change. Double digit growth doen't last forever. I think the hobby will be fine in the long run.

Well said Jeff, very well said (the whole thing)!

[majorvices]

I will home brew until they pry the mash paddle from my cold dead hands....

My old forum handle back in the day when the B3 forum was cool.

[dmtaylor]

I will home brew until they pry the mash paddle from my cold dead hands....

My old forum handle back in the day when the B3 forum was cool.

This pic is immediately what I thought of after the "cold dead hands" comment! 

[udubdawg]

I think about how many times over the years I've complained or heard someone else complain about high prices, old ingredients, lack of service, lack of selection, dirty stores, terrible advice. And from the same stores for years. In what other business would running such a terrible business be sustainable?!

...if less stores means better stores, bring on the correction.

[hopfenundmalz]

Those was something that was a surprise, seeing real numbers. It is hard to find a Sierra Nevada tap around here, all of the new breweries of questionable quality have taken those handles. I wondered how they were doing.

Is Homebrewing the canary in the coal mine? Reading this one wonders if the predicted shake out will happen in the next few years. Will nationals with excess capacity drop prices to maintain volume? Interesting times!

http://www.brewbound.com/news/2016/fight-flagship-fatigue-sierra-nevada-will-introduce-pale-ale-torpedo-line-extensions-2017

[HoosierBrew]

Is Homebrewing the canary in the coal mine? Reading this one wonders if the predicted shake out will happen in the next few years.

I was thinking the same thing. The excess of mediocre (or worse) stuff can only take up store or tap space for so long.

[Stevie]

Is Homebrewing the canary in the coal mine? Reading this one wonders if the predicted shake out will happen in the next few years.

I was thinking the same thing. The excess of mediocre (or worse) stuff can only take up store or tap space for so long.

But people get all fanboy for locals. A newish brewery near me is complete garbage. GARBAGE. Zero redeeming qualities. 4+ stars on yelp.

[HoosierBrew]

Is Homebrewing the canary in the coal mine? Reading this one wonders if the predicted shake out will happen in the next few years.

I was thinking the same thing. The excess of mediocre (or worse) stuff can only take up store or tap space for so long.

But people get all fanboy for locals. A newish brewery near me is complete garbage. GARBAGE. Zero redeeming qualities. 4+ stars on yelp.

Oh I know. It's the same here - about 80% utter crap to good beer. I'm assuming (or hoping) that the young twenty somethings will eventually try enough actual good beers to be able to tell the difference. Or not. Evidently crap beer served in a cool outdoor biergarten or patio is enough around here.

[natebrews]

This is true for sure.  I try out all the new places around here and only 1 of them have I returned to many times because their stuff was genuinely good.  Most are just OK and some are terrible, but somehow they stay in business...

Likewise, I don't drink many home brews aside from my own, but when I was at a buddy's place he had something from one of his coworkers which the guy claimed was really good.  It was all solvent and band-aids.  If that is the product profile that is being accepted by home brewers and the small brewers then it is no surprise that there will be a "correction".