[Slowbrew]

I wasn't planning to go this year (full disclosure: I have never gone to GABF) so this conversation isn't really relevant but IMHO I don't know that we will ever be "back to normal".  I think we will have to accept a New Normal.  This will change people around the world.  The flu in 1918 changed society too. 

That said, I don't think big public events will be a thing by September.  Too much risk and remember, people will need pay off their toilet paper bills yet.    I'm assuming college may be back in session but football won't be.  I only care because my youngest is in the Iowa State Univ. marching band.  Four out of 4 in college bands!!!  I feel bad for her.  Her older sister is graduating from ISU this Spring but likely will never get to walk across the stage.  This will change all of us.

And in 20 years the country will be run by children who were home schooled to day drinkers.  That should be fun. 

Paul

[TXFlyGuy]

Well, I've only missed 1 in the last 8 years, but I'm afraid that GABF this Sept would be risky, if not for yourself certainly for the folks at home.
So far, I haven't heard the Gov Polis is expecting to "Open up May 1st with a Bang". I wouldn't feel safe until at least 30% of the population had been tested. That would take years at the current rate, much less if they were to get serious about it.
I dropped this same question on AHA hoping for some feed back.

The video I just saw showed Bill Gates has a plan, for mass testing, and mass vaccinations. Then you are issued an “Immunity Document”, that will allow you to travel unrestricted.
So...GABF 2021!

I want to go back to Germany for a long stay. I don't think that will happen until there is a vaccine, and I'm vaccinated, and can prove it.

Every expert has said that will take a year if all goes right, but it never all goes right, so 18 months is realistic. Fall of 2021 will be the earliest for my trip.

Proof will be easy, as Gates has a chip implant for you, and everyone who gets vaccinated.

[ynotbrusum]

Some viruses never have a vaccine found, despite years of attempting to find one.  But there are hopes with therapeutics. In the meantime, how do I brew my own quinine water?

[hopfenundmalz]

Well, I've only missed 1 in the last 8 years, but I'm afraid that GABF this Sept would be risky, if not for yourself certainly for the folks at home.
So far, I haven't heard the Gov Polis is expecting to "Open up May 1st with a Bang". I wouldn't feel safe until at least 30% of the population had been tested. That would take years at the current rate, much less if they were to get serious about it.
I dropped this same question on AHA hoping for some feed back.

The video I just saw showed Bill Gates has a plan, for mass testing, and mass vaccinations. Then you are issued an “Immunity Document”, that will allow you to travel unrestricted.
So...GABF 2021!

I want to go back to Germany for a long stay. I don't think that will happen until there is a vaccine, and I'm vaccinated, and can prove it.

Every expert has said that will take a year if all goes right, but it never all goes right, so 18 months is realistic. Fall of 2021 will be the earliest for my trip.

Proof will be easy, as Gates has a chip implant for you, and everyone who gets vaccinated.

Let's not get too political on this.

I'm sure Germany will require some form of proof of vaccination for entry. A passport stamp or some such. Since I lived there, you need your Aufweise at all times in public.

[TXFlyGuy]

Well, I've only missed 1 in the last 8 years, but I'm afraid that GABF this Sept would be risky, if not for yourself certainly for the folks at home.
So far, I haven't heard the Gov Polis is expecting to "Open up May 1st with a Bang". I wouldn't feel safe until at least 30% of the population had been tested. That would take years at the current rate, much less if they were to get serious about it.
I dropped this same question on AHA hoping for some feed back.

The video I just saw showed Bill Gates has a plan, for mass testing, and mass vaccinations. Then you are issued an “Immunity Document”, that will allow you to travel unrestricted.
So...GABF 2021!

I want to go back to Germany for a long stay. I don't think that will happen until there is a vaccine, and I'm vaccinated, and can prove it.

Every expert has said that will take a year if all goes right, but it never all goes right, so 18 months is realistic. Fall of 2021 will be the earliest for my trip.

Proof will be easy, as Gates has a chip implant for you, and everyone who gets vaccinated.

Let's not get too political on this.

I'm sure Germany will require some form of proof of vaccination for entry. A passport stamp or some such. Since I lived there, you need your Aufweise at all times in public.

Breaking news! We subscribe to Japan TV, and they are just now reporting China is on the verge of having a vaccine ready! So maybe we can attend GABF 2020 after all!

[hopfenundmalz]

Well, I've only missed 1 in the last 8 years, but I'm afraid that GABF this Sept would be risky, if not for yourself certainly for the folks at home.
So far, I haven't heard the Gov Polis is expecting to "Open up May 1st with a Bang". I wouldn't feel safe until at least 30% of the population had been tested. That would take years at the current rate, much less if they were to get serious about it.
I dropped this same question on AHA hoping for some feed back.

The video I just saw showed Bill Gates has a plan, for mass testing, and mass vaccinations. Then you are issued an “Immunity Document”, that will allow you to travel unrestricted.
So...GABF 2021!

I want to go back to Germany for a long stay. I don't think that will happen until there is a vaccine, and I'm vaccinated, and can prove it.

Every expert has said that will take a year if all goes right, but it never all goes right, so 18 months is realistic. Fall of 2021 will be the earliest for my trip.

Proof will be easy, as Gates has a chip implant for you, and everyone who gets vaccinated.

Let's not get too political on this.

I'm sure Germany will require some form of proof of vaccination for entry. A passport stamp or some such. Since I lived there, you need your Aufweise at all times in public.

Breaking news! We subscribe to Japan TV, and they are just now reporting China is on the verge of having a vaccine ready! So maybe we can attend GABF 2020 after all!

Ready for testing or for public vaccinations?

[TXFlyGuy]

Well, I've only missed 1 in the last 8 years, but I'm afraid that GABF this Sept would be risky, if not for yourself certainly for the folks at home.
So far, I haven't heard the Gov Polis is expecting to "Open up May 1st with a Bang". I wouldn't feel safe until at least 30% of the population had been tested. That would take years at the current rate, much less if they were to get serious about it.
I dropped this same question on AHA hoping for some feed back.

The video I just saw showed Bill Gates has a plan, for mass testing, and mass vaccinations. Then you are issued an “Immunity Document”, that will allow you to travel unrestricted.
So...GABF 2021!

I want to go back to Germany for a long stay. I don't think that will happen until there is a vaccine, and I'm vaccinated, and can prove it.

Every expert has said that will take a year if all goes right, but it never all goes right, so 18 months is realistic. Fall of 2021 will be the earliest for my trip.

Proof will be easy, as Gates has a chip implant for you, and everyone who gets vaccinated.

Let's not get too political on this.

I'm sure Germany will require some form of proof of vaccination for entry. A passport stamp or some such. Since I lived there, you need your Aufweise at all times in public.

Breaking news! We subscribe to Japan TV, and they are just now reporting China is on the verge of having a vaccine ready! So maybe we can attend GABF 2020 after all!

Ready for testing or for public vaccinations?

They are reporting two, maybe three COVID-19 vaccines ready for human trials. Who want's to be first?

[Steve Ruch]

I live in CO. Apparently the Governor is preparing to lift certain restrictions at the end of April. I would expect for most things to be back to normal here by the beginning of June but who knows.

To me the question is will people feel safe enough to attend events once restrictions are lifted?  Not sure I will.

That is the question. Dr. Fauci was pushing for lock down until a vaccine is developed, and that could take 18 months. No...we won’t be attending any group event like this. Not until the “all clear” signal comes.

Yep.  As much as I like drinking beer with friends, it's not worth risking my life for it.

Better drinking to distant friends than to the memory of said friends.

[Northern_Brewer]

I live in CO. Apparently the Governor is preparing to lift certain restrictions at the end of April. I would expect for most things to be back to normal here by the beginning of June but who knows.

I doubt it. As soon as they take the pressure off social distancing, it's going to come back - there's a good illustration in Figure4 of the 16 March report from Imperial College. They reckon that in the absence of other measures you'll need to be in lockdown 60-80% of the time to keep deaths to a tolerable level until there's an effective vaccine. Obviously test/tracking will help reduce that, but it takes time to develop and scale up reliable tests.

Right now it's like we've just discovered HIV and going out for a drink is the equivalent of unprotected sex - in the absence of drugs and a vaccine, all we can do is reduce the spread.

Also these big festivals take a lot of organising, you can't just cancel them the week before without triggering all sorts of financial penalties (and eg wasting specially-brewed beer) - CAMRA cancelled the GBBF in August within days of the lockdown in the UK, they needed clarity before too many commitments were made.

[TXFlyGuy]

I live in CO. Apparently the Governor is preparing to lift certain restrictions at the end of April. I would expect for most things to be back to normal here by the beginning of June but who knows.

I doubt it. As soon as they take the pressure off social distancing, it's going to come back - there's a good illustration in Figure4 of the 16 March report from Imperial College. They reckon that in the absence of other measures you'll need to be in lockdown 60-80% of the time to keep deaths to a tolerable level until there's an effective vaccine. Obviously test/tracking will help reduce that, but it takes time to develop and scale up reliable tests.

Right now it's like we've just discovered HIV and going out for a drink is the equivalent of unprotected sex - in the absence of drugs and a vaccine, all we can do is reduce the spread.

Also these big festivals take a lot of organising, you can't just cancel them the week before without triggering all sorts of financial penalties (and eg wasting specially-brewed beer) - CAMRA cancelled the GBBF in August within days of the lockdown in the UK, they needed clarity before too many commitments were made.

Basketball, Hockey, Baseball, and maybe even Football...either canceled, or on permanent hold.
From a financial standpoint, the GABF should be canceled to save many from losing big bucks. Another thing to consider...what if they had the event, and very few people show up. That is another money loser for many, including vendors.

No, just cancel it until 2021. Just my opinion.

[hopfenundmalz]

Well, I've only missed 1 in the last 8 years, but I'm afraid that GABF this Sept would be risky, if not for yourself certainly for the folks at home.
So far, I haven't heard the Gov Polis is expecting to "Open up May 1st with a Bang". I wouldn't feel safe until at least 30% of the population had been tested. That would take years at the current rate, much less if they were to get serious about it.
I dropped this same question on AHA hoping for some feed back.

The video I just saw showed Bill Gates has a plan, for mass testing, and mass vaccinations. Then you are issued an “Immunity Document”, that will allow you to travel unrestricted.
So...GABF 2021!

I want to go back to Germany for a long stay. I don't think that will happen until there is a vaccine, and I'm vaccinated, and can prove it.

Every expert has said that will take a year if all goes right, but it never all goes right, so 18 months is realistic. Fall of 2021 will be the earliest for my trip.

Proof will be easy, as Gates has a chip implant for you, and everyone who gets vaccinated.

Let's not get too political on this.

I'm sure Germany will require some form of proof of vaccination for entry. A passport stamp or some such. Since I lived there, you need your Aufweise at all times in public.

Breaking news! We subscribe to Japan TV, and they are just now reporting China is on the verge of having a vaccine ready! So maybe we can attend GABF 2020 after all!

Ready for testing or for public vaccinations?

They are reporting two, maybe three COVID-19 vaccines ready for human trials. Who want's to be first?

Yes, human trials have started. The validation of the vaccines effectiveness, examination of side effects, and so on take the 12-18 months. I'm hopefully one will be found.

[Iliff Ave]

I live in CO. Apparently the Governor is preparing to lift certain restrictions at the end of April. I would expect for most things to be back to normal here by the beginning of June but who knows.

I doubt it. As soon as they take the pressure off social distancing, it's going to come back - there's a good illustration in Figure4 of the 16 March report from Imperial College. They reckon that in the absence of other measures you'll need to be in lockdown 60-80% of the time to keep deaths to a tolerable level until there's an effective vaccine. Obviously test/tracking will help reduce that, but it takes time to develop and scale up reliable tests.

Right now it's like we've just discovered HIV and going out for a drink is the equivalent of unprotected sex - in the absence of drugs and a vaccine, all we can do is reduce the spread.

Also these big festivals take a lot of organising, you can't just cancel them the week before without triggering all sorts of financial penalties (and eg wasting specially-brewed beer) - CAMRA cancelled the GBBF in August within days of the lockdown in the UK, they needed clarity before too many commitments were made.

I doubt it too. So many people seem to know exactly what is going to happen...

[Slowbrew]

Well, I've only missed 1 in the last 8 years, but I'm afraid that GABF this Sept would be risky, if not for yourself certainly for the folks at home.
So far, I haven't heard the Gov Polis is expecting to "Open up May 1st with a Bang". I wouldn't feel safe until at least 30% of the population had been tested. That would take years at the current rate, much less if they were to get serious about it.
I dropped this same question on AHA hoping for some feed back.

The video I just saw showed Bill Gates has a plan, for mass testing, and mass vaccinations. Then you are issued an “Immunity Document”, that will allow you to travel unrestricted.
So...GABF 2021!

I want to go back to Germany for a long stay. I don't think that will happen until there is a vaccine, and I'm vaccinated, and can prove it.

Every expert has said that will take a year if all goes right, but it never all goes right, so 18 months is realistic. Fall of 2021 will be the earliest for my trip.

Proof will be easy, as Gates has a chip implant for you, and everyone who gets vaccinated.

Let's not get too political on this.

I'm sure Germany will require some form of proof of vaccination for entry. A passport stamp or some such. Since I lived there, you need your Aufweise at all times in public.

Breaking news! We subscribe to Japan TV, and they are just now reporting China is on the verge of having a vaccine ready! So maybe we can attend GABF 2020 after all!

Ready for testing or for public vaccinations?

They are reporting two, maybe three COVID-19 vaccines ready for human trials. Who want's to be first?

Yes, human trials have started. The validation of the vaccines effectiveness, examination of side effects, and so on take the 12-18 months. I'm hopefully one will be found.

Hopefully when a vaccine gets through all levels of testing and is okayed for use, the next question will behow quickly can it be manufactured in sufficient quantities?

Crossing fingers it all comes together.

Paul

[TXFlyGuy]

Question: Hopefully when a vaccine gets through all levels of testing and is okayed for use, the next question will be how quickly can it be manufactured in sufficient quantities?

Crossing fingers it all comes together.

Paul

Answer: 18 months, for trials, and certification by the FDA.

[Wilbur]

Question: Hopefully when a vaccine gets through all levels of testing and is okayed for use, the next question will be how quickly can it be manufactured in sufficient quantities?

Crossing fingers it all comes together.

Paul

Answer: 18 months, for trials, and certification by the FDA.

My understanding is that there are different types require vastly different manufacturing systems, and building that is a big factor in that 18 month timeline. My understanding is he's willing to pony up money to build all the facilities, so whatever vaccine works can go into production immediately.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/bill-gates-to-spend-billions-on-coronavirus-vaccine-development-11586124716

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