Author Topic: Covid19  (Read 1946 times)

Offline beersk

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Re: Covid19
« Reply #15 on: December 07, 2020, 07:46:43 PM »
As far as taking a vaccine when they are available, I will be opting out. I am not in a high risk group and even if I were I would still opt out. After some time I may reconsider taking the vaccine but as it stands now there isn't any reason for me to do so. Consider, as it currently stands, covid has a 99.5% recovery rate in my age/health category so I don't see the benefit of taking a vaccine that has a 94% efficiency factor but that is just my opinion. I personally feel that there hasn't been enough time to ferret out the side effects that are certain to rise once the vaccine is distributed on a larger and larger population.

Getting the vaccine isn't a cure just as getting the virus doesn't make one immune from future infections. This is here to stay like all SARS-CoV strains.
The reasoning would be so you have a lower risk of spreading it to those that are in the higher risk category.

I'm no expert and everything that follows is anecdotal, so take it for what it's worth (not much, in other words).   ;)

I have a strong feeling a lot more people have had COVID than anyone can know.  And I think COVID has been here longer than the experts can find evidence of.

What I've seen:
My mother passed away last December which means a very large extended family was together more than once before and following the holidays.  My family consists of four sisters, four brothers, eight spouse and  22 grand-kids.  Add in more spouses and great-grand-kids and you have a crowd even before the hometown gets involved at the wake, the funeral, the funeral dinner...  In addition, we live all over the country and some of of us had made trips abroad.

One of my sisters, a nurse, had "something" in September thru November that antibiotics/steroids/etc could not kick.  Her doctor couldn't identify what it was at the time.  Looking back she can check all the boxes for COVID. 
Throughout December and January we all had colds and flu that were worse than we normally have. 
My wife lost here senses of taste and smell in December. 
I didn't lose taste or smell but felt run down and had lingering cold symptoms for 2 or 3 months. 
The same with the rest of my clan.  Each branch had their own version of "something" and it all looks, at some level like COVID.

It's interesting that blood serum studies are coming out showing that COVID was in Iowa in December last year already.  It supports my theory a little, at least.

Since this started my family has had the opinion that the most interesting numbers would be how many people already had the antibodies prior to this being declared a pandemic.  I think a fairly large portion my extended family does.
For the record: I'm not one of the people claiming natural herd immunity will stop this thing but we already may be closer than anyone will ever know.

All that said: My household wear our masks, wash our hands, use hand sanitizer, stay home and do all the stuff we have told to do to stop this thing.  And we will get vaccinated as soon as we possible can, when it's our turn. The teachers (2), engineers (1 working and 1 in college), our resident chemist and myself will all be in different phases of the rollout.   I suggest you all do the same.

As I started this...
This is all just observation and conjecture.  There is still a lot to learn about this little buggard.

Stay safe everyone.

Paul

Paul, I agree. I live in Iowa City and a lot of us probably already had this. Unfortunately, like the cold or flu, you can be re-infected. And from what I understand, you can also be a carrier if you've already had it and not know it. But I think we still know so little about it yet that that cannot really be 100% accurate. I wish it were more like the chicken pox or something where you really only get it once...
Jesse

Offline Northern_Brewer

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Re: Covid19
« Reply #16 on: December 07, 2020, 11:47:56 PM »
I'm no expert and everything that follows is anecdotal, so take it for what it's worth (not much, in other words).   ;)

I have a strong feeling a lot more people have had COVID than anyone can know.  And I think COVID has been here longer than the experts can find evidence of.

The DNA "clock" evidence is pretty persuasive, that COVID in its current form originates some time around early-mind November 2019. It's possible that interpretation is wrong, but we're getting towards "extraordinary claims need extraordinary evidence" territory - it's going to take more than a bit of anecdote to refute it.

One of my sisters, a nurse, had "something" in September thru November that antibiotics/steroids/etc could not kick.  Her doctor couldn't identify what it was at the time.  Looking back she can check all the boxes for COVID. 

There's lots of things that can give similar symptoms - the loss of smell is just about the only thing that's unusual about Covid and even that's not unique. There are literally hundreds of viruses out there that can give a similar spectrum of symptoms, but it's easy to get so focussed on one of them that the hundreds of others get forgotten about. Seriously - if we're getting to "extraordinary claims" territory, then the only box that could be checked that would be convincing would be a PCR positive from a sample taken pre-November, or a Covid antibody positive shortly afterwards.

One of my relatives had something a bit similar - couldn't shake it for weeks. But that was 5 years ago - I think we can safely say it wasn't Covid, it was another of these hundreds of poorly characterised respiratory viruses that just "got" to her in some way. And to be honest, the respiratory bit of Covid doesn't linger, it just gets on with putting you in intensive care, the "long Covid" symptoms are somewhat different.

Offline tommymorris

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Covid19
« Reply #17 on: December 08, 2020, 12:00:51 AM »
I'm no expert and everything that follows is anecdotal, so take it for what it's worth (not much, in other words).   ;)

I have a strong feeling a lot more people have had COVID than anyone can know.  And I think COVID has been here longer than the experts can find evidence of.

The DNA "clock" evidence is pretty persuasive, that COVID in its current form originates some time around early-mind November 2019. It's possible that interpretation is wrong, but we're getting towards "extraordinary claims need extraordinary evidence" territory - it's going to take more than a bit of anecdote to refute it.

One of my sisters, a nurse, had "something" in September thru November that antibiotics/steroids/etc could not kick.  Her doctor couldn't identify what it was at the time.  Looking back she can check all the boxes for COVID. 

There's lots of things that can give similar symptoms - the loss of smell is just about the only thing that's unusual about Covid and even that's not unique. There are literally hundreds of viruses out there that can give a similar spectrum of symptoms, but it's easy to get so focussed on one of them that the hundreds of others get forgotten about. Seriously - if we're getting to "extraordinary claims" territory, then the only box that could be checked that would be convincing would be a PCR positive from a sample taken pre-November, or a Covid antibody positive shortly afterwards.

One of my relatives had something a bit similar - couldn't shake it for weeks. But that was 5 years ago - I think we can safely say it wasn't Covid, it was another of these hundreds of poorly characterised respiratory viruses that just "got" to her in some way. And to be honest, the respiratory bit of Covid doesn't linger, it just gets on with putting you in intensive care, the "long Covid" symptoms are somewhat different.
I saw a few articles lately that speak to this. I am sorry I can’t cite them. I believe both were in the NYTimes.

1. There is evidence that Covid got to the US much sooner than previously thought as in November December of 2019.

2. CDC antibody surveys around the US suggest about 100 million people have had Covid already. It is approaching 1/3 of the population. Unfortunately, that is not enough for herd immunity.

My take away from number 2 was there is sort of a race for natural herd immunity versus vaccine herd immunity in the US. Obviously, vaccine based herd immunity is much safer for the community, but the virus isn’t letting up.

Offline Wilbur

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Re: Covid19
« Reply #18 on: December 08, 2020, 01:40:50 AM »
The benefits of getting a vaccine are more than just dying or not dying. It may limit your spread or prevent you from getting seriously ill. Given that a lot of people have reported feeling awful for months, losing their sense of smell, and/or heart or lung damage (even among elite athletes), I can't imagine not getting vaccinated. The only downside I've heard is that some people have had a headache for a day or two.

I know Sweden has looked at where they're at in terms of herd immunity and determined that they're not even close. A few members of my homebrew club are in the hospital system here, and they've been seeing: staff on mandatory overtime for months, rising admissions, and staff only allowed to call in sick if they have a positive test and are symptomatic. I think deaths are going to rise over the next few weeks unfortunately.

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Offline dmtaylor

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Re: Covid19
« Reply #19 on: December 08, 2020, 04:15:58 AM »
"When this baby hits 88 mph, you're gonna see some serious sh**."

That's where we are now.  Almost up to 88 mph.  No mistake about it, the next 3-4 months will be 3 times worse than the last 9 months, and might continue to get even worse into a few months beyond, depending on how many can begin to get vaccinated around that time.
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Offline ravenwater

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Re: Covid19
« Reply #20 on: December 08, 2020, 04:31:23 PM »
The benefits of getting a vaccine are more than just dying or not dying. It may limit your spread or prevent you from getting seriously ill. Given that a lot of people have reported feeling awful for months, losing their sense of smell, and/or heart or lung damage (even among elite athletes), I can't imagine not getting vaccinated. The only downside I've heard is that some people have had a headache for a day or two.

I know Sweden has looked at where they're at in terms of herd immunity and determined that they're not even close. A few members of my homebrew club are in the hospital system here, and they've been seeing: staff on mandatory overtime for months, rising admissions, and staff only allowed to call in sick if they have a positive test and are symptomatic. I think deaths are going to rise over the next few weeks unfortunately.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

I can tell you that here in Albuquerque our hospitals have maxed out their ICU beds for COVID patient care and physicians are prepared to execute protocols for determining COVID patent care (or not) - meaning they are at the point of having to think about who gets a ventilator or more extreme life-saving measures and who gets ranked as less likely to respond to immediate intervention and therefore left without treatment that could be critical. Not a situation we want to be in. Whatever can be done to help start to get a better handle on this thing and bring our infection numbers down is worth considering, in my opinion. This is not just info I'm getting from the news, etc. - my wife is a nurse educator at the largest local healthcare system and so is getting this info passed on directly from those on the front lines.
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Offline hopfenundmalz

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Re: Covid19
« Reply #21 on: December 08, 2020, 06:55:33 PM »
As far as taking a vaccine when they are available, I will be opting out. I am not in a high risk group and even if I were I would still opt out. After some time I may reconsider taking the vaccine but as it stands now there isn't any reason for me to do so. Consider, as it currently stands, covid has a 99.5% recovery rate in my age/health category so I don't see the benefit of taking a vaccine that has a 94% efficiency factor but that is just my opinion. I personally feel that there hasn't been enough time to ferret out the side effects that are certain to rise once the vaccine is distributed on a larger and larger population.

Getting the vaccine isn't a cure just as getting the virus doesn't make one immune from future infections. This is here to stay like all SARS-CoV strains.
The reasoning would be so you have a lower risk of spreading it to those that are in the higher risk category.

I'm no expert and everything that follows is anecdotal, so take it for what it's worth (not much, in other words).   ;)

I have a strong feeling a lot more people have had COVID than anyone can know.  And I think COVID has been here longer than the experts can find evidence of.

What I've seen:
My mother passed away last December which means a very large extended family was together more than once before and following the holidays.  My family consists of four sisters, four brothers, eight spouse and  22 grand-kids.  Add in more spouses and great-grand-kids and you have a crowd even before the hometown gets involved at the wake, the funeral, the funeral dinner...  In addition, we live all over the country and some of of us had made trips abroad.

One of my sisters, a nurse, had "something" in September thru November that antibiotics/steroids/etc could not kick.  Her doctor couldn't identify what it was at the time.  Looking back she can check all the boxes for COVID. 
Throughout December and January we all had colds and flu that were worse than we normally have. 
My wife lost here senses of taste and smell in December. 
I didn't lose taste or smell but felt run down and had lingering cold symptoms for 2 or 3 months. 
The same with the rest of my clan.  Each branch had their own version of "something" and it all looks, at some level like COVID.

It's interesting that blood serum studies are coming out showing that COVID was in Iowa in December last year already.  It supports my theory a little, at least.

Since this started my family has had the opinion that the most interesting numbers would be how many people already had the antibodies prior to this being declared a pandemic.  I think a fairly large portion my extended family does.
For the record: I'm not one of the people claiming natural herd immunity will stop this thing but we already may be closer than anyone will ever know.

All that said: My household wear our masks, wash our hands, use hand sanitizer, stay home and do all the stuff we have told to do to stop this thing.  And we will get vaccinated as soon as we possible can, when it's our turn. The teachers (2), engineers (1 working and 1 in college), our resident chemist and myself will all be in different phases of the rollout.   I suggest you all do the same.

As I started this...
This is all just observation and conjecture.  There is still a lot to learn about this little buggard.

Stay safe everyone.

Paul

Paul, I agree. I live in Iowa City and a lot of us probably already had this. Unfortunately, like the cold or flu, you can be re-infected. And from what I understand, you can also be a carrier if you've already had it and not know it. But I think we still know so little about it yet that that cannot really be 100% accurate. I wish it were more like the chicken pox or something where you really only get it once...
Chicken Pox can then manifest as the Shingles later in life. I got my first Shingrix vaccination, will get the second late January.
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Offline beersk

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Re: Covid19
« Reply #22 on: December 08, 2020, 07:28:33 PM »

Chicken Pox can then manifest as the Shingles later in life. I got my first Shingrix vaccination, will get the second late January.
Yeah, I'm aware of that, my dad had shingles, said it really sucked. Hope I don't get it!
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Offline MDixon

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Re: Covid19
« Reply #23 on: December 09, 2020, 02:34:40 AM »
Chicken Pox sucked as a kid. Had one on my eye. Found some old old video my father happened to take back in the early 70's and I appear dead as I was lying in bed with CP.
Shingles sucked as an adult and I had a mild case which we caught early. You can get shingles multiple times as well. We are getting the first shingles vaccine in early January if all works out and the second in late March. Hopefully that will work out well to get the C-19 vaccine by summer.

If all goes well the distal bicep tendon repair is Friday.
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Offline Slowbrew

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Re: Covid19
« Reply #24 on: December 09, 2020, 12:25:07 PM »
Chicken Pox sucked as a kid. Had one on my eye. Found some old old video my father happened to take back in the early 70's and I appear dead as I was lying in bed with CP.
Shingles sucked as an adult and I had a mild case which we caught early. You can get shingles multiple times as well. We are getting the first shingles vaccine in early January if all works out and the second in late March. Hopefully that will work out well to get the C-19 vaccine by summer.

If all goes well the distal bicep tendon repair is Friday.

Good luck on the surgery!

I've had shingles twice and my bout with Chicken Pox as a kid was horrible.  My doctor has mentioned the vaccine a couple of times but never actually given it to me.  The same with a tetanus booster, took 10 years to to be given the shot (they last 35+ years, right?).  He just retired, we'll see what the new kid decides to do.

Just to clarify my earlier comments: I didn't intend to play down the virus but I see it could easily be read that way.  I was hoping to point out how much more prevalent it is in our world than a surprisingly large population of folks seem to believe.  I'll leave it at that.

Take care of yourselves and each other!

Paul
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Offline MDixon

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Re: Covid19
« Reply #25 on: December 09, 2020, 02:55:13 PM »
Thanks! Looking forward to it actually.

Quick note about the tetanus shot. I had received boosters as needed since childhood. Had a cut on a foot which got infected and they asked about tetanus, but I could not recall the last booster. Got the shot and had an adverse reaction which is extremely rare. Every joint in my body ached and I had a very high fever. Took about 4 days for the fever to drop and a couple of weeks to get back to normal. Made the flu seems like a cakewalk and I had the flu in 2019 for the first time in 24 years and it was truly horrible.

As far as the bicep tear, it's rare too. 1.2 out of 100,000. Lucky me!
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Offline Northern_Brewer

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Re: Covid19
« Reply #26 on: December 09, 2020, 06:31:43 PM »
I saw a few articles lately that speak to this. I am sorry I can%u2019t cite them. I believe both were in the NYTimes.

1. There is evidence that Covid got to the US much sooner than previously thought as in November December of 2019.

The earliest hard evidence is deaths in northern California on 6 and 17 February, confirmed by retrospective tests which found "SARS2 virus" - presumably genetic material. On average it's about 27 days from infection to death so that suggests infection around the 10 and 21 January give or take a week or so. Since by February they were testing people who had travelled to Wuhan, that suggests we can be pretty sure there was community transmission in Northern California by early January.

Previously the earliest US death had been thought to be one in Seattle on 26 February (ie infected around 30 January) and the first confirmed test was on 19 January. There may well have been the odd one missed in February but given that there are direct flights from Wuhan to San Francisco you'd expect the Bay Area to be one of the first places it would show up. We can assume that the kind of people making 12 hour flights across the Pacific are younger and not typically in high-risk groups, but on the other hand Christmas is a perfect time for super-spreader events - lots of people crowding indoors, lots of hugging and singing, lots of interaction between younger people and the elderly etc.

Even with that in mind, from what we now know about death rates you'd be surprised if none of the first 100 infectees died, so if the first death really was 6 February then that suggests there were <100 infectees in the US as of ~10 January - and potentially as few as 10 or so if they were all old. So we're talking well within the scope of a single superspreader event - or perhaps more likely some circulation for a couple of weeks - but not months - before 10 January. So you can explain the observed death rates with just one infectee coming from Wuhan to San Francisco just before Christmas last year, maybe a US businessman coming back from a business trip, or someone coming from Wuhan to see family over Christmas.

So one doesn't need infections long before Christmas to explain the observed deaths - whereas if you are claiming a lot of infection well before Christmas then you need to demonstrate increased deaths which we don't see. Yes the odd one might be missed, but not the results of a widespread infection. And I suspect there's been quite a lot of testing of old samples to try and find virus in them - it's not easy to do always, but given the huge kudos of reporting something that rewrites the story then the fact that there's been no reports of virus in pre-Christmas samples suggests that it certainly wasn't common before Christmas.

Which brings us to the report I think you're talking about, Basavaraju et al - the "antibodies in December" paper. The first thing to say is that any antibody evidence is indirect so you can never say anything definite with them - and cross-reactions are a real problem.

The second thing to say is that the authors themselves will only allow themselves the conclusion that their testing "suggests that the virus was present in the United States earlier than previously recognized" - they're not commiting to anything definite, just a "suggestion", and not a date, just "earlier". As they themselves say "These data might indicate that there is no clear delineation between potentially cross reactive specimens, and those that were obviously from SARS-CoV-2 infected individuals....The S1 subunit has been reported to be a more specific antigen for SARS-CoV-2 serologic diagnosis than the whole S protein"

So everyone got excited about the headline finding that 106 out of 7,389 samples had some kind of reaction with SARS2, but once you look into the detail it looks like ~56% of those were definitely cross-reactions, and just one had a reaction with SARS2 S1 subunit. So they think something's going on, but there's only one they feel really confident about :

"Collectively, these data suggest that at least some of the reactive blood donor sera could be due to prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. One serum, collected on January 10, 2020 in Connecticut, demonstrated a neutralization titer of 320, 6.75 signal to threshold ratio, and 70% inhibition activity by surrogate neutralization activity, but was Ortho S1 non-reactive. These data indicate that this donation was likely from an individual with a past or active SARS-CoV-2 infection."

No doubt in time we'll get a better feel for which patterns of antibodies come from SARS2 and which from infection with other coronaviruses. The one that was S1 positive is interesting - a sample from a 16-29yo man from Northern California, collected 13-16 December. Which far from disproving anything, is exactly consistent with the kind of conclusion we'd drawn from the pattern of deaths - and once it gets on a direct flight from Wuhan to SFO it can readily spread through the US.
« Last Edit: December 09, 2020, 11:44:25 PM by Northern_Brewer »

Offline tommymorris

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Re: Covid19
« Reply #27 on: December 09, 2020, 07:00:00 PM »
That seems like what I saw. I just misremembered the details.  I am not in healthcare. I think it is awesome they can do this type of investigative work.

Offline Northern_Brewer

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Re: Covid19
« Reply #28 on: December 10, 2020, 06:41:45 AM »
2. CDC antibody surveys around the US suggest about 100 million people have had Covid already. It is approaching 1/3 of the population. Unfortunately, that is not enough for herd immunity.

Another cheerful bit of data - Manaus in Brazil is pretty much the poster child for what happens if you do nothing about Covid, it didn't start slowing down there until 76% had had it. The one thing in their favour is a much younger population than is typical in the West, so a smaller percentage die, but I hate to think what their long Covid stats are like.

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/12/07/science.abe9728

Offline Cliffs

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Re: Covid19
« Reply #29 on: December 18, 2020, 04:51:25 PM »
The benefits of getting a vaccine are more than just dying or not dying. It may limit your spread or prevent you from getting seriously ill. Given that a lot of people have reported feeling awful for months, losing their sense of smell, and/or heart or lung damage (even among elite athletes), I can't imagine not getting vaccinated. The only downside I've heard is that some people have had a headache for a day or two.

I know Sweden has looked at where they're at in terms of herd immunity and determined that they're not even close. A few members of my homebrew club are in the hospital system here, and they've been seeing: staff on mandatory overtime for months, rising admissions, and staff only allowed to call in sick if they have a positive test and are symptomatic. I think deaths are going to rise over the next few weeks unfortunately.

Sent from my Pixel 2 XL using Tapatalk

I can tell you that here in Albuquerque our hospitals have maxed out their ICU beds for COVID patient care and physicians are prepared to execute protocols for determining COVID patent care (or not) - meaning they are at the point of having to think about who gets a ventilator or more extreme life-saving measures and who gets ranked as less likely to respond to immediate intervention and therefore left without treatment that could be critical. Not a situation we want to be in. Whatever can be done to help start to get a better handle on this thing and bring our infection numbers down is worth considering, in my opinion. This is not just info I'm getting from the news, etc. - my wife is a nurse educator at the largest local healthcare system and so is getting this info passed on directly from those on the front lines.

My wifes grandfather is in the hospital with Covid, he contracted it at his nursing home. Due to icu capacity they have told us he will not be getting a ventilator or any extraordinary measures. He might die unnecessarily. To say I am angered and disappointed by my countries response to this pandemic is an understatement.