I don't know that those stats represent current data. Based on the number of entries in a lot of competitions recently, I could see the number of brewers having doubled. That'd bring the minimum population way down. Then theres the demographic of the town/city. Is this a drinking population or a Bible Belt population? Also, here in northeast MO and west-central IL, the towns are shopping center for a large area and so your clientele will include the population of a lot of smaller towns. On the subject of sales vs cost of materials, can you not double your money? And I think I could do a little better on rent and utiities in this area.
Still, it doesn't look like a get rich scheme by any stretch. And you're talking self-employment taxes on that 22-25K. I could see doing it as a semi-retirement gig, where I could hang out and brew and enjoy dealing with the occasional customer.