Author Topic: Looking bad for barley...  (Read 1620 times)

Offline denny

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Looking bad for barley...
« on: October 05, 2011, 05:11:13 PM »
From the American Malting Barley Assoc. production report..

Production is estimated at 155 million bushels, down 8 percent from the August forecast and 14 percent below 2010, and the lowest since 1936. Average yield per acre, at 69.2 bushels, is down 3.9 bushels from the previous year. Producers seeded 2.56 million acres in 2011, down 11 percent from last year. This is the lowest planted acreage on record. Harvested area, at 2.24 million acres, is down 9 percent from 2010, and the lowest level since 1881. Seeded area in North Dakota establishes a record low for the State, while harvested area is the lowest since 1901. In addition, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, South Dakota, and Utah producers set new record lows for seeded acreage, while producers in New York seeded a record-tying low. Record lows for harvested area were set in Michigan and Wisconsin. A record high yield was set in North Carolina, while producers in Arizona reported a record-tying yield.
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Offline hopfenundmalz

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Re: Looking bad for barley...
« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2011, 05:15:10 PM »
I don't dispute that the crop will be low.  Michigan's share of the barley crop is about as big as it has for the hop crop.  Which translates to not much.
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Offline brushvalleybrewer

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Re: Looking bad for barley...
« Reply #2 on: October 06, 2011, 04:48:52 AM »
You'd think with the rise in craft brewing that there would be more demand for barley, but I understand subsidies on other crops has caused other traditional uses of barley to substitute for other ingredients.
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Offline hopfenundmalz

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Re: Looking bad for barley...
« Reply #3 on: October 06, 2011, 05:51:19 AM »
I have also read that feed barley is going away, as more of that is going to corn.  The malting barley planted is contracted by the maltsters.  Don't know if there is enough cushion for a bad growing year.  What is the international crop looking like?
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Offline James Lorden

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Re: Looking bad for barley...
« Reply #4 on: October 06, 2011, 06:36:54 AM »
That's a good point - is the decline in barley going to effect brewers.  Making numbers up, but if brewers use 50% of the barley crop and that increases buy 5% but other uses such as feed decrease by 15% due to a lack of demand, then over all crop would decrease but the brewers shouldn't be effected. (not sure if that is the actual case or not)
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Offline beersk

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Re: Looking bad for barley...
« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2011, 07:10:17 AM »
Anheuser-Busch laughs, "Half of our beer is corn anyway! This won't affect us at all, haHA!"
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Re: Looking bad for barley...
« Reply #6 on: October 06, 2011, 07:41:30 AM »
That's a good point - is the decline in barley going to effect brewers.  Making numbers up, but if brewers use 50% of the barley crop

Maltsters actually account for >90% of the barley crop.
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Offline Slowbrew

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Re: Looking bad for barley...
« Reply #7 on: October 06, 2011, 08:08:19 AM »
To a certain extent the market a farmer sells into involves crop quality.  If your quality is low, it goes into the feed market and you get less for it.  Malting companies will only purchased the highest quality grain so even a good yield may lead to a short market in top grade barley in a year with bad growing conditions.  Commodities markets are scary places to do business.

Besides corn, Canola has also been taking over acres that used to be planted to barley.  Canola is the current king in the "not as bad for you as lard" oil market.  There is a high demand for it and since it was developed in Canada the barley growing regions are perfectly suited to it.  The industry is also developing more heat resistant strains of Canola and it is starting to push out wheat acres out further south.

Like everything else right now, I wouldn't look for prices of barley to go down anytime soon.  Just hope for smaller increases.

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Offline majorvices

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Re: Looking bad for barley...
« Reply #8 on: October 06, 2011, 08:16:03 AM »
From the American Malting Barley Assoc. production report..

Production is estimated at 155 million bushels, down 8 percent from the August forecast and 14 percent below 2010, and the lowest since 1936. Average yield per acre, at 69.2 bushels, is down 3.9 bushels from the previous year. Producers seeded 2.56 million acres in 2011, down 11 percent from last year. This is the lowest planted acreage on record. Harvested area, at 2.24 million acres, is down 9 percent from 2010, and the lowest level since 1881. Seeded area in North Dakota establishes a record low for the State, while harvested area is the lowest since 1901. In addition, Michigan, Minnesota, Oregon, South Dakota, and Utah producers set new record lows for seeded acreage, while producers in New York seeded a record-tying low. Record lows for harvested area were set in Michigan and Wisconsin. A record high yield was set in North Carolina, while producers in Arizona reported a record-tying yield.

Sounds like a determined effort to jack up prices. Similar to hops a few years ago. Only on hops the prices needed to come up. Barley is already super expensive and has been rising steadily for years.
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Offline denny

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Re: Looking bad for barley...
« Reply #9 on: October 06, 2011, 08:36:25 AM »
That's a good point - is the decline in barley going to effect brewers.  Making numbers up, but if brewers use 50% of the barley crop and that increases buy 5% but other uses such as feed decrease by 15% due to a lack of demand, then over all crop would decrease but the brewers shouldn't be effected. (not sure if that is the actual case or not)

Keep in mind that the report covers only malting barley.
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Offline James Lorden

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Re: Looking bad for barley...
« Reply #10 on: October 06, 2011, 08:40:05 AM »
in that case, Ouch!
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Offline ibru

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Re: Looking bad for barley...
« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2011, 08:42:45 AM »
Speaking from an ag supplier side, the higher prices are required to stay in business. Diesel, fertilizer, chemicals, equipment, labor, and other imputs are up. The growers don't set the price, it's supply and demand (except when Big Brother steps in).

By the way, I believe that a little less than half the total barley ends up in malt products

Offline majorvices

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Re: Looking bad for barley...
« Reply #12 on: October 06, 2011, 09:06:25 AM »
Speaking from an ag supplier side, the higher prices are required to stay in business. Diesel, fertilizer, chemicals, equipment, labor, and other imputs are up. The growers don't set the price, it's supply and demand (except when Big Brother steps in).

By the way, I believe that a little less than half the total barley ends up in malt products

But if brewers go out of business because they can't afford to brew beer then the growers lose money too.
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Offline James Lorden

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Re: Looking bad for barley...
« Reply #13 on: October 06, 2011, 09:27:19 AM »
is that true, or will growers just plant something else?
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Offline bo

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Re: Looking bad for barley...
« Reply #14 on: October 06, 2011, 09:39:22 AM »
Sure they'll plant something else and it will probably be something that gets them a subsidy, like corn.