[denny]

People with passion do not have money and people with money do not have passion.

Just buy my beer and be happy

Ha ha ha!  The best answer yet.

Leave it to Leos to get to the heart of the matter!

[tonyp]

Wow, that article is indeed a rant, and while there is a small part of me that agrees with him, the reality is that in their place I would probably do the same thing. Of course, that quick infusion of cash would go right into another brewery.

Unfortunately it doesn't work like that, they would make you sign a non-compete barring you from opening another commercial brewery. You could build a kick ass homebrewery though.

Yeah there's no way I would sign something like that, but if I had to, I guess my best friend that lives next door would have to open one, or my wife, or my brother/sister, or mother/father, etc etc. As with anything I'm sure there's 10 ways around it.

I'll have to look up how those laws work in jersey, its an interesting topic.

[majorvices]

Yeah, I be willing to bet the non-compete would be a lifetime with InBev - assuming the buy out was substantial (which I assume it was). We sold 20% of the company to a new partner last spring and he insisted that I sign a non-compete. I negotiated a 2 year non-compete within a 200 mile radius of our current location.  But this was only because he didn't want to invest a lot of money into a brewery and then lose the brewer. In the  instance of InBev I'm sure they would want a life time non compete.

As an aside: I would not be happy making cider and mead. Distillery on the other hand.

I don't know Illinois law on the subject but I would be highly surprised if the non-compete could last more than a few years.

Thinking about this somemore, again I'm not a lawyer: but I'm sure this may be true from an employer/employee standpoint. I would be surprised if this was true on the corporate level. A law like that would be legislated to help the little guy, I imagine.

[Jimmy K]

Wow, that article is indeed a rant, and while there is a small part of me that agrees with him, the reality is that in their place I would probably do the same thing. Of course, that quick infusion of cash would go right into another brewery.

Unfortunately it doesn't work like that, they would make you sign a non-compete barring you from opening another commercial brewery. You could build a kick ass homebrewery though.

Yeah there's no way I would sign something like that, but if I had to, I guess my best friend that lives next door would have to open one, or my wife, or my brother/sister, or mother/father, etc etc. As with anything I'm sure there's 10 ways around it.

I'll have to look up how those laws work in jersey, its an interesting topic.

You'd probably be bared from working at another brewery, not just owning one. Of course, they'd be paying you a pretty penny in exchange for your freedom. And in the end, it would be your choice. $$ or do what you want.

[narvin]

Don't worry, the bubble's gonna pop soon anyway.  All the greedy people who got into brewing to make loads of money will realize their folly and leave the industry, leaving only our passionate, insane, poor saviors.

[hopfenundmalz]

Don't worry, the bubble's gonna pop soon anyway.  All the greedy people who got into brewing to make loads of money will realize their folly and leave the industry, leaving only our passionate, insane, poor saviors.

This is more true than many think. It will take a while, but someday the surge in growth will have reached a point where the market will adjust.

The guys from Founder said a few years back that they were going to grow to be established when things got lean in the future.

[HoosierBrew]

Don't worry, the bubble's gonna pop soon anyway.  All the greedy people who got into brewing to make loads of money will realize their folly and leave the industry, leaving only our passionate, insane, poor saviors.

This is more true than many think. It will take a while, but someday the surge in growth will have reached a point where the market will adjust.

The guys from Founder said a few years back that they were going to grow to be established when things got lean in the future.

+2.  Judging by the number of mediocre to 'just above average' brewpubs out there that get by on their food and big screen TVs, I look for some of these to sink under their own mediocrity. The cream will rise in any field.

[morticaixavier]

Don't worry, the bubble's gonna pop soon anyway.  All the greedy people who got into brewing to make loads of money will realize their folly and leave the industry, leaving only our passionate, insane, poor saviors.

This is more true than many think. It will take a while, but someday the surge in growth will have reached a point where the market will adjust.

The guys from Founder said a few years back that they were going to grow to be established when things got lean in the future.

the bubble is only going to break soon if you assume that themarket can only support 1 brewery per 100,000 drinkers or similar. Pre-prohibition the breweries:drinkers ratio was much higher than it is today. Even today, in many european countries that ratio is much much higher than today in the USA.

a random sampling of related media: http://www.brewersassociation.org/insights/how-many-breweries-can-us-take/

if we take the mid point between what that article poses as a reasonable level for the USA (~7100 breweries) and what a ratio in line with Switzerland (~15000 breweries) there is still quite a bit of room to grow from our current ~3100 breweries.

And we can see how the market share of the Big Ones is falling. They are huge so it doesn't seem like much at this point but it will likely continue.

There will always be adjustments in the market, saturated markets will adjust, out and out bad breweries will start to fail more often as the market matures but we are still a ways any sort of bursting bubble.

[yso191]

I agree with Jonathan on this point.  I think the boom has a LONG way to go - primarily for three reasons:

1. More flavor and better flavors in Craft beer
2. Societal movement toward local sourcing of foodstuffs
3. The ratio of craft to BMC: still ~1/9! 

You see, I don't think that the dynamic in play here is the same as a lot of other 'bubbles.'  Craft beer isn't a fad any more than people preferring a variety of good food is a fad.  Quality and variety will never be out of style.  The *only* thing BMC has going for it is the price point that goes with volume.

Anyway, that's how I see it.

[Joe Sr.]

The *only* thing BMC has going for it is the price point that goes with volume.

Anyway, that's how I see it.

BMC beer is familiar, consistent, and you can get it anywhere.  Went to an out of town wedding.  They served local craft beer at the reception.  I tried each of the varieties in sequence.  Wit, pale ale, and I forget what else.  They were bad.  Set them down to the side and had a cold Bud.  Sadly, it was the best of the bunch.  But I knew what it was and although I was disappointed to be drinking it the Bud itself did not disappoint.  It was exactly the same as every other one I've had in my life.  I think that has a lot of value for a lot of people.

But, I also agree that there is room for good local breweries and that the good ones will survive.  To the extent there's a "bubble" it's people thinking they can open a micro-brewery and make a quick buck selling mediocre beer.  Those people by and large will fail.

[Stevie]

I think brewpubs will be safer than package breweries. That is contingent on the food being good.

[HoosierBrew]

I think brewpubs will be safer than package breweries. That is contingent on the food being good.

Yeah, that is true. I've seen a few where the beer started out weak and evolved into being pretty decent or good. Good food covers up quite a bit.

[majorvices]

I think brewpubs will be safer than package breweries. That is contingent on the food being good.

Maybe, except the restaurant business is a real easy business to turn belly up in a hurry if not managed just right.

[Stevie]

I think brewpubs will be safer than package breweries. That is contingent on the food being good.

Maybe, except the restaurant business is a real easy business to turn belly up in a hurry if not managed just right.

True. Based on all your press, I think you will survive any bubble.

And to clarify, I think mediocre brewpubs will outlive mediocre package breweries.

[klickitat jim]

There will be ebb and flow but I dont think <4000 breweries is a bubble. How many .coms were there when that bubble popped? How many empty homes when the housing bubble popped? We are a long way from that, I think.