Let me say first that I am not a chemist. When Robert posted something about surfactants I thought he was talking about a Beach Boys movie.
I estimate that my 2 gallon (7.5 liter) headspace will shrink by 7% when cooled from 70 F (294 K) to 34 F (274 K). That is a volume of about 16 oz (500 ml), not a trivial amount. That air will mix in the headspace, exposing the beer to a 7% air mixture for days. Of course the exposure will be at a low temperature, so the chemical reactions will all be slower. There are other phases of the packaging process where the beer can be exposed to pure air but only for a few seconds or minutes. Which is worse: exposure to 7% air at 34F for days or exposure to 100% air at room temperature for seconds or minutes? I don't know, but my gut tells me that the longer exposure would more than compensate for the reduced temperature and concentration.
Using a rubber balloon should work, provided you put it on at the right time. Too early and it would overfill and explode or blow off. Too late and it would not collect enough CO2 and would collapse during the cold crash. Now I know that if that happens, though, I can just jiggle the carboy to release enough CO2 to partially inflate the balloon again. I will try that experiment on my next batch.