Probably not, Dave. Having won a medal or two that surprised me on beers that I thought were 'pretty good', and having really good beers come up short just reinforces (to me anyway) that comps are unpredictable. Judges have varying experience, knowledge of a given style, and palate fatigue within a style. Judges - please understand that I mean no disrespect. 90% of the time I am harder on my own beers than any judge ever. The other 10% I chalk up to a tough category, and occasionally 'they missed a good one'. Stuff happens.
Agreed! I place no credence on anyone's medal in a competition. That just means your beer was better than the others. In some competitions, that is not saying much. The only thing that counts to me is the score of a highly ranked BJCP judge or a pro-brewer that is known for producing outstanding beers.
This is not to say that un-ranked or lesser ranked judges can't be good...it may just mean that they haven't had the opportunity to advance their rank...yet! However, I am loath to give any credence to a pro-brewer as a beer judge. As most of you know, there is a huge amount of poor 'craft' beer out there. Its piss-poor brewers that decided that they want to brew for a living, that drag down the craft industry. Learning to recognize beer faults and knowing how to correct them, is a critical factor in a brewer's skill set. Being able to add hot water to grain and get paid for it, does not make you capable of judging beer effectively.
With over 15 years of judging, I too am pretty hard on judging my beers before competition. Having had to taste so many poor beers in competition, I wish more brewers had the skills to decipher their beer's faults prior to entering. But I do have to remind myself that this is also how brewers learn to recognize their beer's faults and add that data point to their skill set. Hopefully, my liver sacrifice goes to someone else's benefit.
Here is to those of you that enter and those that judge...just make sure that you take your results with a grain of salt...in some cases!